Usura
Com usura homem algum terá
casa de boa pedra
cada bloco talhado em polidez
e bem ajustado
para que o esboço envolva suas faces,
Com Usura
homem algum terá paraíso
pintado na parede de sua igreja
harpes et luz
ou onde a virgem receba a mensagem
e um halo projeta-se do inciso,
com usura
homem algum vê Gonzaga
seus herdeiros e concubinas
pintura alguma é feita pra ficar
nem pra com ela conviver
só é feita a fim de vender
e vender depressa
Com Usura, pecado contra a natureza,
sempre teu pão será rançosas códeas
sempre teu pão será de papel seco
sem trigo da montanha,
sem farinha forte
com usura uma linha cresce turva
com usura não há clara demarcação
e homem algum encontra sua casa.
O talhador não talha sua pedra
o tecelão não vê o seu tear
Com Usura
não vai a lã até a feira
carneiro não dá ganho com usura
a usura é uma peste, usura
engrossa a agulha
lá nas mãos da moça
E só pára a perícia de quem fia.
Pietro Lombardo
não veio via usura
Duccio não veio via usura
Nem Pier della Francesca;
Zuan Bellini não pela usura
nem foi pintada
'La Calunnia' assim.
Angelico não veio via usura;
nem veio Ambrogio Praedis,
Não veio Igreja alguma
de pedra talhada
com a incisão: Adamo me fecit.
Nem via usura St. Trophime
Nem via usura Saint Hilaire.
Usura oxida o cinzel
Ela enferruja o ofício e o artesão
Ela corrói o fio no tear
Ninguém aprende a tecer
ouro em seu modelo;
o azul é necrosado pela usura;
não se borda o carmesim
A esmeralda não acha
o seu Memling
A Usura mata o filho nas entranhas
Impede o jovem de fazer a corte
Levou paralisia ao leito, deita-se
entre a jovem noiva e seu noivo
...................contra naturam
Trouxeram meretrizes para Elêusis
Cadáveres dispostos no banquete às ordens da usura
Tradução:José Lino Grunewald
With Usura
With usura hath no man a house of good stone
each block cut smooth and well fitting
that delight might cover their face,
with usura
hath no man a painted paradise on his church wall
harpes et luthes
or where virgin receiveth message
and halo projects from incision,
with usura
seeth no man Gonzaga his heirs and his concubines
no picture is made to endure nor to live with
but it is made to sell and sell quickly
with usura, sin against nature,
is thy bread ever more of stale rags
is thy bread dry as paper,
with no mountain wheat, no strong flour
with usura the line grows thick
with usura is no clear demarcation
and no man can find site for his dwelling
Stone cutter is kept from his stone
weaver is kept from his loom
WITH USURA
wool comes not to market
sheep bringeth no gain with usura
Usura is a murrain, usura
blunteth the needle in the the maid's hand
and stoppeth the spinner's cunning.
Pietro Lombardo came not by usura
Duccio came not by usura
nor Pier della Francesca; Zuan Bellin' not by usura
nor was "La Callunia" painted.
Came not by usura Angelico; came not Ambrogio Praedis,
No church of cut stone signed: Adamo me fecit.
Not by usura St. Trophime
Not by usura St. Hilaire,
Usura rusteth the chisel
It rusteth the craft and the craftsman
It gnaweth the thread in the loom
None learneth to weave gold in her pattern;
Azure hath a canker by usura; cramoisi is unbroidered
Emerald findeth no Memling
Usura slayeth the child in the womb
It stayeth the young man's courting
It hath brought palsey to bed, lyeth
between the young bride and her bridegroom
CONTRA NATURAM
They have brought whores for Eleusis
Corpses are set to banquet
at behest of usura.
Ezra Pound
quinta-feira, 19 de junho de 2008
quarta-feira, 18 de junho de 2008
Economics: Which Way for Obama?
Apesar de ser uma resenha de um livro( Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness, Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein.Yale University Press), os fragmentos, abaixo, apresentam uma boa análise das afinidades dos candidatos a Presidencia dos USA com as escolas do pensamento econômico.
"The bursting of the housing bubble and the associated credit crunch has so far wiped out about $3 trillion of wealth—nobody knows the exact amount—caused havoc in the financial markets, and prompted hundreds of thousands of homeowners to default on their monthly mortgage payments. Some experts predict that by the end of 2009, the number of homes entering foreclosure could reach two million. Not surprisingly, the question of what to do about the housing crisis has emerged as a divisive policy issue in the 2008 presidential election, with each of the three leading candidates representing a distinct economic ideology.
John McCain, for all his protestations that economics is not his strong point, has put forward a coherent, if somewhat heartless, case for doing nothing, or very little, anyway. Echoing the arguments that Andrew Mellon, Friedrich Hayek, and other enthusiasts of the free market espoused in the early years of the Great Depression, McCain has said it is no business of the government to bail out people who took out loans they couldn't afford. Evidently such socialistic interventions would only reward reckless behavior, and, in any case, they wouldn't work. The laissez-faire argument says it is better to let the market "correct"—i.e., let the foreclosures mount up—until people learn to live within their means and prices become more affordable, at which point sustainable economic growth will resume.
Hillary Clinton, after initially equivocating, has emerged as the would-be heir to FDR and John Maynard Keynes. In addition to imposing a ninety-day moratorium on foreclosures and a five-year freeze on certain adjustable mortgage rates, she would have the federal government buy up an undetermined number of troubled home loans, enabling lenders to convert them to more affordable deals and putting a floor under the housing market.
Clinton would also allow bankruptcy judges to reduce the value of mortgages, a proposal the banking industry vigorously opposes, and she has criticized McCain as the reincarnation of Herbert Hoover—a comparison that is a bit unfair to the thirty-first president, whose intellectual commitment to voluntarism didn't prevent him from expanding public works programs, raising taxes on the wealthy, and creating two institutions that funneled federal money into the housing market: the Federal Home Loan Bank and the Reconstruction Finance Corporation.
Barack Obama has also criticized McCain for sitting back and watching while so many American families face eviction. Yet his own proposals are more nuanced than Hillary's. They include setting up a $10 billion fund to help prevent foreclosures, cracking down on mortgage fraud, providing tax credits to low- and middle-income homeowners who don't currently itemize their interest payments, and standardizing the terms of mortgages so that potential borrowers can more easily figure out when they are being hoodwinked. Obama has also expressed support for Democratic Senator Chris Dodd's plan to expand the Federal Housing Administration's ability to refinance troubled loans. So far, though, he has been noticeably less enthusiastic than Clinton about a large-scale injection of public funds into the market for mortgages and mortgage securities.
Should Obama win the nomination, political considerations may well force upon him a more interventionist position, but his first inclination is to seek a path between big government and laissez-faire, a trait that reflects his age—he was born in 1961—and the intellectual milieu he emerged from. Before entering the Illinois state Senate, he spent ten years teaching constitutional law at the University of Chicago, where respect for the free market is a cherished tradition. His senior economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, is a former colleague of his at Chicago and an expert on the economics of high-tech industries. Goolsbee is not a member of the "Chicago School" of Milton Friedman and Gary Becker, but he is not well known as a critic of American capitalism either. As recently as March 2007, he published an article in The New York Times pointing out the virtues of subprime mortgages. "The three decades from 1970 to 2000 witnessed an incredible flowering of new types of home loans," Goolsbee wrote. "These innovations mainly served to give people power to make their own decisions about housing, and they ended up being quite sensible with their newfound access to capital."
When I spoke to Goolsbee earlier this year, he said that one of the things that distinguished Obama from Clinton was his skepticism about standard Keynesian prescriptions, such as relying on tax policy to stimulate investment and saving. In a recent posting on HuffingtonPost.com, Cass Sunstein, who for ten years was a colleague of Obama's at the University of Chicago Law School—and has said he is "an informal, occasional adviser to him"—made a similar point regarding government oversight of the financial markets: "With respect to the mortgage crisis, credit cards and the broader debate over credit markets," Sunstein wrote, "Obama rejects heavy-handed regulation and insists above all on disclosure, so that consumers will know exactly what they are getting."
If Obama isn't an old-school Keynesian, what is he? One answer is that he is a behavioralist—the term economists use to describe those who subscribe to the tenets of behavioral economics, an increasingly popular discipline that seeks to marry the insights of psychology to the rigor of economics. Although its intellectual roots go back more than thirty years, to the pioneering work of two Israeli psychologists, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, behavioral economics took off only about ten years ago, and many of its leading lights, among them David Laibson and Andrei Shleifer, of Harvard; Matt Rabin, of Berkeley; and Colin Camerer, of Caltech, are still in their thirties or forties. One of the reasons this approach has proved so popular is that it appears to provide a center ground between the Friedmanites and the Keynesians, whose intellectual jousting dominated economics for most of the twentieth century.
The central tenet of the Chicago School is that markets, once established and left alone, will resolve most of society's economic problems, including, presumably, the mortgage crisis. Keynesians—old-school Keynesians, anyway—take the view that markets, financial markets especially, often fail to work as advertised, and that this failure can be self-reinforcing rather than self-correcting. In some ways, the behavioralists stand with the Keynes-ians. Markets sometimes go badly awry, they agree, especially when people have to make complicated choices, such as what type of mortgage to take out. But whereas the Keynesians argue that vigorous regulation and the prohibition of certain activities such as excessive borrowing are often necessary, behavioralists tend to be more hopeful about redeeming free enterprise. With a gentle nudge, they argue, even some very poorly performing markets—and the people who inhabit them—can be made to work pretty well.
John Cassidy
Fonte: The New York Review of Books, June 21, 2008.
"The bursting of the housing bubble and the associated credit crunch has so far wiped out about $3 trillion of wealth—nobody knows the exact amount—caused havoc in the financial markets, and prompted hundreds of thousands of homeowners to default on their monthly mortgage payments. Some experts predict that by the end of 2009, the number of homes entering foreclosure could reach two million. Not surprisingly, the question of what to do about the housing crisis has emerged as a divisive policy issue in the 2008 presidential election, with each of the three leading candidates representing a distinct economic ideology.
John McCain, for all his protestations that economics is not his strong point, has put forward a coherent, if somewhat heartless, case for doing nothing, or very little, anyway. Echoing the arguments that Andrew Mellon, Friedrich Hayek, and other enthusiasts of the free market espoused in the early years of the Great Depression, McCain has said it is no business of the government to bail out people who took out loans they couldn't afford. Evidently such socialistic interventions would only reward reckless behavior, and, in any case, they wouldn't work. The laissez-faire argument says it is better to let the market "correct"—i.e., let the foreclosures mount up—until people learn to live within their means and prices become more affordable, at which point sustainable economic growth will resume.
Hillary Clinton, after initially equivocating, has emerged as the would-be heir to FDR and John Maynard Keynes. In addition to imposing a ninety-day moratorium on foreclosures and a five-year freeze on certain adjustable mortgage rates, she would have the federal government buy up an undetermined number of troubled home loans, enabling lenders to convert them to more affordable deals and putting a floor under the housing market.
Clinton would also allow bankruptcy judges to reduce the value of mortgages, a proposal the banking industry vigorously opposes, and she has criticized McCain as the reincarnation of Herbert Hoover—a comparison that is a bit unfair to the thirty-first president, whose intellectual commitment to voluntarism didn't prevent him from expanding public works programs, raising taxes on the wealthy, and creating two institutions that funneled federal money into the housing market: the Federal Home Loan Bank and the Reconstruction Finance Corporation.
Barack Obama has also criticized McCain for sitting back and watching while so many American families face eviction. Yet his own proposals are more nuanced than Hillary's. They include setting up a $10 billion fund to help prevent foreclosures, cracking down on mortgage fraud, providing tax credits to low- and middle-income homeowners who don't currently itemize their interest payments, and standardizing the terms of mortgages so that potential borrowers can more easily figure out when they are being hoodwinked. Obama has also expressed support for Democratic Senator Chris Dodd's plan to expand the Federal Housing Administration's ability to refinance troubled loans. So far, though, he has been noticeably less enthusiastic than Clinton about a large-scale injection of public funds into the market for mortgages and mortgage securities.
Should Obama win the nomination, political considerations may well force upon him a more interventionist position, but his first inclination is to seek a path between big government and laissez-faire, a trait that reflects his age—he was born in 1961—and the intellectual milieu he emerged from. Before entering the Illinois state Senate, he spent ten years teaching constitutional law at the University of Chicago, where respect for the free market is a cherished tradition. His senior economic adviser, Austan Goolsbee, is a former colleague of his at Chicago and an expert on the economics of high-tech industries. Goolsbee is not a member of the "Chicago School" of Milton Friedman and Gary Becker, but he is not well known as a critic of American capitalism either. As recently as March 2007, he published an article in The New York Times pointing out the virtues of subprime mortgages. "The three decades from 1970 to 2000 witnessed an incredible flowering of new types of home loans," Goolsbee wrote. "These innovations mainly served to give people power to make their own decisions about housing, and they ended up being quite sensible with their newfound access to capital."
When I spoke to Goolsbee earlier this year, he said that one of the things that distinguished Obama from Clinton was his skepticism about standard Keynesian prescriptions, such as relying on tax policy to stimulate investment and saving. In a recent posting on HuffingtonPost.com, Cass Sunstein, who for ten years was a colleague of Obama's at the University of Chicago Law School—and has said he is "an informal, occasional adviser to him"—made a similar point regarding government oversight of the financial markets: "With respect to the mortgage crisis, credit cards and the broader debate over credit markets," Sunstein wrote, "Obama rejects heavy-handed regulation and insists above all on disclosure, so that consumers will know exactly what they are getting."
If Obama isn't an old-school Keynesian, what is he? One answer is that he is a behavioralist—the term economists use to describe those who subscribe to the tenets of behavioral economics, an increasingly popular discipline that seeks to marry the insights of psychology to the rigor of economics. Although its intellectual roots go back more than thirty years, to the pioneering work of two Israeli psychologists, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, behavioral economics took off only about ten years ago, and many of its leading lights, among them David Laibson and Andrei Shleifer, of Harvard; Matt Rabin, of Berkeley; and Colin Camerer, of Caltech, are still in their thirties or forties. One of the reasons this approach has proved so popular is that it appears to provide a center ground between the Friedmanites and the Keynesians, whose intellectual jousting dominated economics for most of the twentieth century.
The central tenet of the Chicago School is that markets, once established and left alone, will resolve most of society's economic problems, including, presumably, the mortgage crisis. Keynesians—old-school Keynesians, anyway—take the view that markets, financial markets especially, often fail to work as advertised, and that this failure can be self-reinforcing rather than self-correcting. In some ways, the behavioralists stand with the Keynes-ians. Markets sometimes go badly awry, they agree, especially when people have to make complicated choices, such as what type of mortgage to take out. But whereas the Keynesians argue that vigorous regulation and the prohibition of certain activities such as excessive borrowing are often necessary, behavioralists tend to be more hopeful about redeeming free enterprise. With a gentle nudge, they argue, even some very poorly performing markets—and the people who inhabit them—can be made to work pretty well.
John Cassidy
Fonte: The New York Review of Books, June 21, 2008.
terça-feira, 17 de junho de 2008
Breaking Faith With Britain
Interessante artigo, mencionado na coluna desta terça do João Pereira Coutinho, publicado na recem lançada revista Standpoint.
"
The rapid fragmentation of society, the emergence of isolated communities with only tenuous links to their wider context, and the impact of home-grown terrorism have all led even hard-bitten, pragmatist politicians to ask questions about “Britishness”: what is at the core of British identity; how can it be reclaimed, passed on and owned by more and more people?
The answers to these questions cannot be only in terms of the “thin” values, such as respect, tolerance and good behaviour, which are usually served up by those scratching around for something to say. In fact, the answer can only be given after rigorous investigation into the history of nationhood and of the institutions, laws, customs and values which have arisen to sustain and to enhance it. In this connection, as with the rest of Europe, it cannot be gainsaid that the very idea of a unified people under God living in a “golden chain” of social harmony has everything to do with the arrival and flourishing of Christianity in these parts. It is impossible to imagine how else a rabble of mutually hostile tribes, fiefdoms and kingdoms could have become a nation conscious of its identity and able to make an impact on the world. In England, particularly, this consciousness goes back a long way and is reflected, for example, in a national network of care for the poor that was locally based in the parishes and was already in place in the 16th century.
In some ways, I am the least qualified to write about such matters. There have been, and are today, many eminent people in public and academic life who have a far greater claim to reflect on these issues than I have. Perhaps my only justification for even venturing into this field is to be found in Kipling when he wrote, “What should they know of England who only England know?” It may be, then, that to understand the precise relationship of the Christian faith to the public life of this nation, a perspective is helpful which is both rooted in the life of this country and able to look at it from the outside.
As I survey the field, what do I see? I find, first of all, “a descending theme” in terms of Christian influence. That is to say, I find that the systems of governance, of the rule of law, of the assumption of trust in common life all find their inspiration in Scripture; for example, in the Pauline doctrine of the godly magistrate and, ultimately, in the Christian doctrine of God the Holy Trinity, where you have both an ordered relationship and a mutuality of love. As Joan O’Donovan has pointed out, the notion of God’s right, or God’s justice, produced a network of divine, human and natural law which was the basis of a just ordering of society and also of a mutual sense of obligation “one towards another”, as we say at Prayers for the Parliament. Such a descending theme of influence continues to permeate society, but is especially focused in constitutional arrangements, such as the “Queen in Parliament under God”, the Queen’s Speech (which always ends with a prayer for Almighty God to bless the counsels of the assembled Parliament), daily prayers in Parliament, the presence of bishops in the House of Lords, the national flag, the national anthem — the list could go on. None of this should be seen as “icing on the cake” or as interesting and tourist-friendly vestigial elements left over from the Middle Ages. They have the purpose of weaving the awareness of God into the body politic of the nation."
MICHAEL NAZIR-ALI
Para ler o artigo completo: http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/breaking-faith-with-britain
"
The rapid fragmentation of society, the emergence of isolated communities with only tenuous links to their wider context, and the impact of home-grown terrorism have all led even hard-bitten, pragmatist politicians to ask questions about “Britishness”: what is at the core of British identity; how can it be reclaimed, passed on and owned by more and more people?
The answers to these questions cannot be only in terms of the “thin” values, such as respect, tolerance and good behaviour, which are usually served up by those scratching around for something to say. In fact, the answer can only be given after rigorous investigation into the history of nationhood and of the institutions, laws, customs and values which have arisen to sustain and to enhance it. In this connection, as with the rest of Europe, it cannot be gainsaid that the very idea of a unified people under God living in a “golden chain” of social harmony has everything to do with the arrival and flourishing of Christianity in these parts. It is impossible to imagine how else a rabble of mutually hostile tribes, fiefdoms and kingdoms could have become a nation conscious of its identity and able to make an impact on the world. In England, particularly, this consciousness goes back a long way and is reflected, for example, in a national network of care for the poor that was locally based in the parishes and was already in place in the 16th century.
In some ways, I am the least qualified to write about such matters. There have been, and are today, many eminent people in public and academic life who have a far greater claim to reflect on these issues than I have. Perhaps my only justification for even venturing into this field is to be found in Kipling when he wrote, “What should they know of England who only England know?” It may be, then, that to understand the precise relationship of the Christian faith to the public life of this nation, a perspective is helpful which is both rooted in the life of this country and able to look at it from the outside.
As I survey the field, what do I see? I find, first of all, “a descending theme” in terms of Christian influence. That is to say, I find that the systems of governance, of the rule of law, of the assumption of trust in common life all find their inspiration in Scripture; for example, in the Pauline doctrine of the godly magistrate and, ultimately, in the Christian doctrine of God the Holy Trinity, where you have both an ordered relationship and a mutuality of love. As Joan O’Donovan has pointed out, the notion of God’s right, or God’s justice, produced a network of divine, human and natural law which was the basis of a just ordering of society and also of a mutual sense of obligation “one towards another”, as we say at Prayers for the Parliament. Such a descending theme of influence continues to permeate society, but is especially focused in constitutional arrangements, such as the “Queen in Parliament under God”, the Queen’s Speech (which always ends with a prayer for Almighty God to bless the counsels of the assembled Parliament), daily prayers in Parliament, the presence of bishops in the House of Lords, the national flag, the national anthem — the list could go on. None of this should be seen as “icing on the cake” or as interesting and tourist-friendly vestigial elements left over from the Middle Ages. They have the purpose of weaving the awareness of God into the body politic of the nation."
MICHAEL NAZIR-ALI
Para ler o artigo completo: http://www.standpointmag.co.uk/breaking-faith-with-britain
segunda-feira, 16 de junho de 2008
Piadas sobre Economistas e Economia V
Engenheiros e Cientistas nunca farão tanto dinheiro quanto empresários executivos.
Tendo em vista os seguintes postulados: Conhecimento é Poder (1)
e Tempo é Dinheiro (2), parte-se da equação geral conhecida por todos:
Trabalho
--------- = Power (Força, Poder) , trocando as variáveis:
Tempo
Trabalho
--------- = Conhecimento , onde temos o seguinte resultado:
Dinheiro
Trabalho
Dinheiro = -----------
Conhecimento
Uma vez que o conhecimento se aproxima de zero, independentemente do trabalho realizado o dinheiro tenderá ao infinito.
*
Um viajante chegou numa ilha habitada por canibais e foi visitar um açougue especializado em cérebro de humanos. Lá podia-se verificar os preços:
Cérebro de Filósofo: $ 12,00 / kg
Cérebro de Cientista: $ 15,00 / kg
Cérebro de Artista: $ 18,00 / kg
Cérebro de Economista: $ 24,00 / kg
Diante dos preços, o viajante comentou. "Os cérebros de Economistas devem ser muito apreciados por aqui."
Indignado, respondeu o açougueiro: "Você está louco ? Você não faz idéia de quantos economistas é preciso matar para juntar um quilo de cérebro!"
*
O governador encomendou a um arquiteto que fizesse o projeto de uma sala com a entrada por um só lado, para o dpto. de economistas. Curioso, o arquiteto perguntou ao governador porquê este detalhe na sala dos economistas. O governador respondeu: "Porque eles sempre vem com explicações por um lado e por outro lado..."
*
Todo mundo tem uma vantagem comparativa de algum modo, devido ao desempenho não estar inteiramente no terceiro quadrante.
*
Perguntaram a um economista qual era o segredo da vida. Ele respondeu: "Depende dos valores dos parâmetros".
*
— Qual a tem sido a questão normal do recém graduado economista em seu primeiro emprego ?
— O Sr. quer acompanhando bife acebolado ou frango frito ?
*
A Ciência Econômica é extremamente útil como uma forma de emprego para os economistas
*
Um físico, um químico e um economista estão perdidos em uma ilha deserta, sem nada para comer, somente com uma lata de sopa enlatada. Entretanto era preciso abrí-la. O físico disse, "vamos bater na lata com uma pedra", o químico disse "vamos fazer uma fogueira e aquecer a lata antes", enquanto o economista complementou, "assumindo a hipótese de que nós temos um abridor de lata...".
(Paul Samuelson)
*
— Qual a diferença entre uma pós-graduação em Finanças e uma em Economia ?
— Custo de Oportunidade.
*
Um economista, um filósofo, um biólogo e um arquiteto estavam discutindo sobre qual seria a verdadeira profissão de Deus. O filósofo disse, "Bem, acima de tudo, Deus é um filósofo porque ele criou os princípios nos quais o homem vive".
"Ridículo", disse o biólogo. "Antes disto, Deus criou o homem e a mulher e todas as coisas vivas, de maneira inquestionável, portanto Deus é biólogo.
"Errado", complementou o arquiteto. "Antes de criar os seres vivos, Deus criou o céu e a terra. Antes da terra só havia confusão e caos", disse o arquiteto procurando justificar a profissão de Deus como arquiteto.
"Pois é.", falou o economista. "De onde vocês acham que veio o caos ?"
Tendo em vista os seguintes postulados: Conhecimento é Poder (1)
e Tempo é Dinheiro (2), parte-se da equação geral conhecida por todos:
Trabalho
--------- = Power (Força, Poder) , trocando as variáveis:
Tempo
Trabalho
--------- = Conhecimento , onde temos o seguinte resultado:
Dinheiro
Trabalho
Dinheiro = -----------
Conhecimento
Uma vez que o conhecimento se aproxima de zero, independentemente do trabalho realizado o dinheiro tenderá ao infinito.
*
Um viajante chegou numa ilha habitada por canibais e foi visitar um açougue especializado em cérebro de humanos. Lá podia-se verificar os preços:
Cérebro de Filósofo: $ 12,00 / kg
Cérebro de Cientista: $ 15,00 / kg
Cérebro de Artista: $ 18,00 / kg
Cérebro de Economista: $ 24,00 / kg
Diante dos preços, o viajante comentou. "Os cérebros de Economistas devem ser muito apreciados por aqui."
Indignado, respondeu o açougueiro: "Você está louco ? Você não faz idéia de quantos economistas é preciso matar para juntar um quilo de cérebro!"
*
O governador encomendou a um arquiteto que fizesse o projeto de uma sala com a entrada por um só lado, para o dpto. de economistas. Curioso, o arquiteto perguntou ao governador porquê este detalhe na sala dos economistas. O governador respondeu: "Porque eles sempre vem com explicações por um lado e por outro lado..."
*
Todo mundo tem uma vantagem comparativa de algum modo, devido ao desempenho não estar inteiramente no terceiro quadrante.
*
Perguntaram a um economista qual era o segredo da vida. Ele respondeu: "Depende dos valores dos parâmetros".
*
— Qual a tem sido a questão normal do recém graduado economista em seu primeiro emprego ?
— O Sr. quer acompanhando bife acebolado ou frango frito ?
*
A Ciência Econômica é extremamente útil como uma forma de emprego para os economistas
*
Um físico, um químico e um economista estão perdidos em uma ilha deserta, sem nada para comer, somente com uma lata de sopa enlatada. Entretanto era preciso abrí-la. O físico disse, "vamos bater na lata com uma pedra", o químico disse "vamos fazer uma fogueira e aquecer a lata antes", enquanto o economista complementou, "assumindo a hipótese de que nós temos um abridor de lata...".
(Paul Samuelson)
*
— Qual a diferença entre uma pós-graduação em Finanças e uma em Economia ?
— Custo de Oportunidade.
*
Um economista, um filósofo, um biólogo e um arquiteto estavam discutindo sobre qual seria a verdadeira profissão de Deus. O filósofo disse, "Bem, acima de tudo, Deus é um filósofo porque ele criou os princípios nos quais o homem vive".
"Ridículo", disse o biólogo. "Antes disto, Deus criou o homem e a mulher e todas as coisas vivas, de maneira inquestionável, portanto Deus é biólogo.
"Errado", complementou o arquiteto. "Antes de criar os seres vivos, Deus criou o céu e a terra. Antes da terra só havia confusão e caos", disse o arquiteto procurando justificar a profissão de Deus como arquiteto.
"Pois é.", falou o economista. "De onde vocês acham que veio o caos ?"
domingo, 15 de junho de 2008
Which is Worse? Regulation or Deregulation
Regulamentar ou desregulamentar? Questão difícil de responder e que há anos ocupa papel importante nos debates sobre políticas públicas nos USA. O artigo abaixo é uma boa introdução a esta controversia.
Libertarians preach the morality of the market, and socialists preach the morality of the state. Those convinced of the market's morality want de-regulation; those convinced of the state's morality want regulation.
In truth, neither seems to work.
Consider for example the rules against collusion. The political left imposed this regulatory rule in order to prevent monopoly behavior by companies. One consequence has been that, unable to collude, firms are slaves to their bottom lines. In order to compete successfully in the competitive new world of globalism, firms have curtailed pensions and health insurance for their employees.
Or consider the regulation of new drugs, which drives up costs and delays remedies without, apparently, doing much to improve safety.
Or the fleet milage standards that regulation imposes on car makers. These regulations destroyed the family station wagon. Families needing carrying capacity turned to vans and to panel trucks. Car makers saw a new market and invented the SUV, which as a "light truck" was exempt from the fleet milage regulations. The effort to impose fuel economy resulted in cars being replaced by over weight fuel-guzzling SUVs.
On the other hand consider the current troubles resulting from banking and financial de-regulation. The losses from this one crisis greatly exceed any gains from de-regulation.
Or consider the plight of the de-regulated airlines and deterioration in the quality of air service. Or the higher costs of telephone service and the loss of a blue chip stock for widows and retirement funds that resulted from breaking up AT&T. Or the scandals and uncertainties from utility de-regulation which permits non-energy producers like Enron to contract to deliver electric power.
Economists claim that de-regulation results in lower prices. Cheap advanced fare airline ticket prices are cited as evidence. What these economists mean is that the fares without stopovers are cheap to people who can plan their trips in advance. Other passengers subsidize these advanced fares by paying four times as much. Moreover, de-regulation has created bottom-line competition that has lowered service, removed meals, and results in periodic bankruptcy, thus forcing the airlines' creditors to pay for the low fares. Pilots, flight attendants, and aircraft maintenance crews subsidize the lower fares with reductions in salaries and pension benefits. Are bankruptcies and mergers leading the industry toward one carrier and the re-emergence of regulation?
Consider the fall-out from trucking de-regulation. As in the case of the airlines, the claim was that more communities would be served and costs would decline. But which costs? De-regulation made every minute a bottom-line item. Trucks became bigger, heavier, and travel at higher speeds. Highway safety suffers, and highway maintenance costs rise. The courtesy of truck drivers declined. When trucking was regulated, truckers would stop to help people whose cars had broken down. Today that would throw off the schedule and threaten the bottom-line.
Economists dismiss costs that aren't included in price. For them the cost that matters is the price paid by consumers. The truck that gets there faster delivers cheaper to the consumer. The myriad ways in which people pay the price of de-regulation are not part of the price paid at the check-out counter.
Economists also say that offshoring lowers Wal-Mart prices, thus benefitting the consumer. They don't say that by moving jobs abroad offshoring reduces the job opportunities and life-time earnings of the US labor force, or that it wrecks the finances of the laid-off US workers and destroys the tax base of their local communities. None of these costs of offshoring enter into the price of the offshored goods that Americans purchase.
Privatization vs. socialization is another dimension of the conflict. Those who distrust the power of private ownership put faith in public ownership, and those who distrust the power of the state find freedom to be imperiled in the absence of private ownership. 20th century experience established that public ownership is economically inefficient without producing offsetting gains in public welfare. Those in charge of nationalized firms live well both at the expense of taxpayers and consumers.
Nevertheless, privatization can be pushed too far, and it has. As a result of the upfront cost of building prisons and their high operating costs when in government hands, prisons are being privatized and have become profit-making ventures. Governments avoid the construction costs and contract for incarceration services. Allegedly, the greater efficiency of the private operation lowers the cost.
Private prisons, however, require a constant stream of prisoners. They cannot afford to have vacant cells. If incarceration rates fell, profits would disappear and bankruptcy would descend upon the owners. Thus, privatized prisons create a demand for criminals and, as a result, might actually raise the total cost of incarceration.
The US--the "land of liberty"--has the largest prison population in the world. With 5 percent of the world's population, the US has 25 percent of the prison population. The US has 1.3 million more people in prison than crime-ridden Russia, and 700,000 more prisoners than authoritarian China, which has a population four times larger.
In the US the number and kind of crimes have exploded. Prisons are full of drug users, and the US now has "hate crimes" such as the use of constitutionally protected free speech against "protected minorities." It is in the self-interest of prison investors to agitate for yet more criminalization of civil liberties and ordinary human behavior.
The case for de-regulation is as ideological as the case for regulation. There is no open-and-shut case for either approach. Such issues should be decided on their merits, but usually are decided by the reigning ideology of an epoch or by powerful interest groups.
The Bush regime has de-regulated the government in the sense that the regime has removed constraints that the Founders put on executive power. This was done in the name of the "war on terror." Simultaneously, Bush has increased the regulation of our travel and communication, spying on our Internet use and specifying to the ounce the quantities of toothpaste and shampoo with which Americans can board commercial airliners.
Crises destroy liberty. Lincoln used the crisis of states withdrawing from the union to destroy states' rights, an essential preservative of liberty in the minds of the Founders. Roosevelt used the Great Depression to destroy the legislative power of Congress by having that power delegated to federal agencies. Bush used 9/11 to assault the civil liberties that protect Americans from a police state.
Perhaps we have now reached a point where both libertarians and left-wingers can agree that the US government desperately needs to be re-regulated and again held accountable to the people.
Paul Graig Roberts
Libertarians preach the morality of the market, and socialists preach the morality of the state. Those convinced of the market's morality want de-regulation; those convinced of the state's morality want regulation.
In truth, neither seems to work.
Consider for example the rules against collusion. The political left imposed this regulatory rule in order to prevent monopoly behavior by companies. One consequence has been that, unable to collude, firms are slaves to their bottom lines. In order to compete successfully in the competitive new world of globalism, firms have curtailed pensions and health insurance for their employees.
Or consider the regulation of new drugs, which drives up costs and delays remedies without, apparently, doing much to improve safety.
Or the fleet milage standards that regulation imposes on car makers. These regulations destroyed the family station wagon. Families needing carrying capacity turned to vans and to panel trucks. Car makers saw a new market and invented the SUV, which as a "light truck" was exempt from the fleet milage regulations. The effort to impose fuel economy resulted in cars being replaced by over weight fuel-guzzling SUVs.
On the other hand consider the current troubles resulting from banking and financial de-regulation. The losses from this one crisis greatly exceed any gains from de-regulation.
Or consider the plight of the de-regulated airlines and deterioration in the quality of air service. Or the higher costs of telephone service and the loss of a blue chip stock for widows and retirement funds that resulted from breaking up AT&T. Or the scandals and uncertainties from utility de-regulation which permits non-energy producers like Enron to contract to deliver electric power.
Economists claim that de-regulation results in lower prices. Cheap advanced fare airline ticket prices are cited as evidence. What these economists mean is that the fares without stopovers are cheap to people who can plan their trips in advance. Other passengers subsidize these advanced fares by paying four times as much. Moreover, de-regulation has created bottom-line competition that has lowered service, removed meals, and results in periodic bankruptcy, thus forcing the airlines' creditors to pay for the low fares. Pilots, flight attendants, and aircraft maintenance crews subsidize the lower fares with reductions in salaries and pension benefits. Are bankruptcies and mergers leading the industry toward one carrier and the re-emergence of regulation?
Consider the fall-out from trucking de-regulation. As in the case of the airlines, the claim was that more communities would be served and costs would decline. But which costs? De-regulation made every minute a bottom-line item. Trucks became bigger, heavier, and travel at higher speeds. Highway safety suffers, and highway maintenance costs rise. The courtesy of truck drivers declined. When trucking was regulated, truckers would stop to help people whose cars had broken down. Today that would throw off the schedule and threaten the bottom-line.
Economists dismiss costs that aren't included in price. For them the cost that matters is the price paid by consumers. The truck that gets there faster delivers cheaper to the consumer. The myriad ways in which people pay the price of de-regulation are not part of the price paid at the check-out counter.
Economists also say that offshoring lowers Wal-Mart prices, thus benefitting the consumer. They don't say that by moving jobs abroad offshoring reduces the job opportunities and life-time earnings of the US labor force, or that it wrecks the finances of the laid-off US workers and destroys the tax base of their local communities. None of these costs of offshoring enter into the price of the offshored goods that Americans purchase.
Privatization vs. socialization is another dimension of the conflict. Those who distrust the power of private ownership put faith in public ownership, and those who distrust the power of the state find freedom to be imperiled in the absence of private ownership. 20th century experience established that public ownership is economically inefficient without producing offsetting gains in public welfare. Those in charge of nationalized firms live well both at the expense of taxpayers and consumers.
Nevertheless, privatization can be pushed too far, and it has. As a result of the upfront cost of building prisons and their high operating costs when in government hands, prisons are being privatized and have become profit-making ventures. Governments avoid the construction costs and contract for incarceration services. Allegedly, the greater efficiency of the private operation lowers the cost.
Private prisons, however, require a constant stream of prisoners. They cannot afford to have vacant cells. If incarceration rates fell, profits would disappear and bankruptcy would descend upon the owners. Thus, privatized prisons create a demand for criminals and, as a result, might actually raise the total cost of incarceration.
The US--the "land of liberty"--has the largest prison population in the world. With 5 percent of the world's population, the US has 25 percent of the prison population. The US has 1.3 million more people in prison than crime-ridden Russia, and 700,000 more prisoners than authoritarian China, which has a population four times larger.
In the US the number and kind of crimes have exploded. Prisons are full of drug users, and the US now has "hate crimes" such as the use of constitutionally protected free speech against "protected minorities." It is in the self-interest of prison investors to agitate for yet more criminalization of civil liberties and ordinary human behavior.
The case for de-regulation is as ideological as the case for regulation. There is no open-and-shut case for either approach. Such issues should be decided on their merits, but usually are decided by the reigning ideology of an epoch or by powerful interest groups.
The Bush regime has de-regulated the government in the sense that the regime has removed constraints that the Founders put on executive power. This was done in the name of the "war on terror." Simultaneously, Bush has increased the regulation of our travel and communication, spying on our Internet use and specifying to the ounce the quantities of toothpaste and shampoo with which Americans can board commercial airliners.
Crises destroy liberty. Lincoln used the crisis of states withdrawing from the union to destroy states' rights, an essential preservative of liberty in the minds of the Founders. Roosevelt used the Great Depression to destroy the legislative power of Congress by having that power delegated to federal agencies. Bush used 9/11 to assault the civil liberties that protect Americans from a police state.
Perhaps we have now reached a point where both libertarians and left-wingers can agree that the US government desperately needs to be re-regulated and again held accountable to the people.
Paul Graig Roberts
sábado, 14 de junho de 2008
Rorty
Se voce esta pensando em comprar a recem lançada biografia do Rorty, recomendo ler a resenha abaixo que saiu na The Economist.
RICHARD RORTY, who died last year at 75, was one of the most talked-about thinkers in America. Every professional philosopher in the English-speaking world had to grapple with his magnum opus, “Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature”, published in 1979. But the reason why he was a superstar is that it was not only philosophers who read him. Students and teachers in many other branches of the humanities fell under his spell. This wide appeal was partly due to his approachable style, trenchant polemics and breadth of learning. It also helped that he attacked philosophy as a puffed-up pretender with no monopoly on deep truths.
In fact, for Rorty there weren’t really any deep truths at all. He saw himself as a pragmatist in the American tradition of William James and (especially) John Dewey. Pragmatists say that beliefs should be judged by their usefulness, and not by any supposed correspondence with an ultimate reality that lurks behind the landscape of everyday life. This sort of pragmatism—or so Rorty argued in “Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature”—demotes philosophy to just one form of edifying conversation among many.
In 1982, three years after the book was published, Rorty left the philosophy department of Princeton University to become a multidisciplinary professor of the humanities at the University of Virginia. In 1998 he packed his bags again to teach comparative literature at Stanford University in California.
This was not a particularly eventful life. Rorty’s parents were left-wing anti-communist intellectuals. He was precocious and began studies at the University of Chicago at the age of 15. He was married, divorced and remarried. There were rows with departmental colleagues. He wrote a lot (in newspapers and magazines, as well as academic journals and books) and died of cancer. If Neil Gross, who is an American sociologist, had set out to write a traditional biography of Rorty, he would not have had a gripping tale to tell. Instead he has used Rorty as a case study in the sociological analysis of academe.
In theory, Rorty is a promising subject for such treatment. Here was a star of the dominant “analytical” movement in philosophy who, it seemed, suddenly turned on his colleagues and became an eclectic iconoclast.
Why did he do it? Unfortunately for anyone who is not a professional sociologist, Mr Gross is more interested in distinguishing subtly different ways of answering this question than he is in the question itself. And his writing seems almost designed to make pedestrian generalisations sound as if they are insights: “As thinkers move across the life course and are affiliated with different institutions, they may pick up from some of them identity elements that they integrate into their self-concept narratives.”
Almost by accident, Mr Gross does shed some light on Rorty’s development. He shows that his estrangement from his colleagues at Princeton was no volte-face but a natural evolution from his early studies in Chicago and graduate work at Yale. The two chapters about Rorty’s parents may be useful raw material for scholars of the minor figures in pre-war intellectual life. Similarly, information about the minutiae of tenure decisions and rivalries in leading philosophy departments will be of interest to institutional historians.
But none of this is woven into an engaging narrative here. Those who agree with Rorty's critique of philosophy will be tempted to conclude from this volume that sociology is even worse.
RICHARD RORTY, who died last year at 75, was one of the most talked-about thinkers in America. Every professional philosopher in the English-speaking world had to grapple with his magnum opus, “Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature”, published in 1979. But the reason why he was a superstar is that it was not only philosophers who read him. Students and teachers in many other branches of the humanities fell under his spell. This wide appeal was partly due to his approachable style, trenchant polemics and breadth of learning. It also helped that he attacked philosophy as a puffed-up pretender with no monopoly on deep truths.
In fact, for Rorty there weren’t really any deep truths at all. He saw himself as a pragmatist in the American tradition of William James and (especially) John Dewey. Pragmatists say that beliefs should be judged by their usefulness, and not by any supposed correspondence with an ultimate reality that lurks behind the landscape of everyday life. This sort of pragmatism—or so Rorty argued in “Philosophy and the Mirror of Nature”—demotes philosophy to just one form of edifying conversation among many.
In 1982, three years after the book was published, Rorty left the philosophy department of Princeton University to become a multidisciplinary professor of the humanities at the University of Virginia. In 1998 he packed his bags again to teach comparative literature at Stanford University in California.
This was not a particularly eventful life. Rorty’s parents were left-wing anti-communist intellectuals. He was precocious and began studies at the University of Chicago at the age of 15. He was married, divorced and remarried. There were rows with departmental colleagues. He wrote a lot (in newspapers and magazines, as well as academic journals and books) and died of cancer. If Neil Gross, who is an American sociologist, had set out to write a traditional biography of Rorty, he would not have had a gripping tale to tell. Instead he has used Rorty as a case study in the sociological analysis of academe.
In theory, Rorty is a promising subject for such treatment. Here was a star of the dominant “analytical” movement in philosophy who, it seemed, suddenly turned on his colleagues and became an eclectic iconoclast.
Why did he do it? Unfortunately for anyone who is not a professional sociologist, Mr Gross is more interested in distinguishing subtly different ways of answering this question than he is in the question itself. And his writing seems almost designed to make pedestrian generalisations sound as if they are insights: “As thinkers move across the life course and are affiliated with different institutions, they may pick up from some of them identity elements that they integrate into their self-concept narratives.”
Almost by accident, Mr Gross does shed some light on Rorty’s development. He shows that his estrangement from his colleagues at Princeton was no volte-face but a natural evolution from his early studies in Chicago and graduate work at Yale. The two chapters about Rorty’s parents may be useful raw material for scholars of the minor figures in pre-war intellectual life. Similarly, information about the minutiae of tenure decisions and rivalries in leading philosophy departments will be of interest to institutional historians.
But none of this is woven into an engaging narrative here. Those who agree with Rorty's critique of philosophy will be tempted to conclude from this volume that sociology is even worse.
sexta-feira, 13 de junho de 2008
John Henry Newman Lecture
É sempre uma imensa alegria ler textos que honram a grande tradição intelectual católica. Este é o caso da palestra(lecture), do Cardeal Walter Kasper, presidente do Conselho Pontifício para a Promoção da Unidade dos Cristãos, que inagurou a nova série de lectures -John Henry Newman Lecture - organizada pelos “Catholic Halls” da Universidade de Oxford. Patrocinada pelo jornal britanico The Catholic Herald, ela “honours and promotes John Henry Newman's vision of a rich mutuality between the Christian faith and the intellectual life: of faith as constantly seeking understanding, and of reason as perfected in faith”
"The new actuality of God
In the philosophical and theological tradition one proof for the existence of God was derived “exconsensu gentium”, “on the basis of the consensus of all peoples”. The argument postulates that there is no people so savage, no man so primitive that his spirit is totally devoid of any conception of deities.
In the ancient world this consensus was seen as a sign of divine legitimation. There was a
conviction that this unanimity could not rest merely on convention, that it is grounded in a law of nature.1 In the tradition of Plato, the idea of God was until well into the modern era believed to be innate to mankind. The psalmist too says: “Only the fool says in his heart, there is no God” (Ps14,1; 53,1).
Is that still true today? In our age, is it not instead the wise, or those who consider themselves as such, who say precisely that there is no God – and who believe that they can dismiss the idea of God of earlier ages as a God delusion. So the proof of God on the basis of the unanimity of the peoples seems at least for us Europeans to be an idea that has had its day. Surveys confirm that in respect of religion we Europeans rank last on the world scale, and other cultures are surprised that we have renounced the consensus gentium and – viewed from the perspective of universalcultural history – have chosen to follow a separate path.
Doubtless, even among the scientific community in Europe we can still find a substantial number of esteemed scientists for whom God is not dead but a living reality who determines their lives and their thinking. But there are also many to whom God means nothing. They live etsi Deus non daretur. In the ancient world, and in religions in general, God or the divine represent the actual and true reality, while the world by contrast is in danger of being seen merely as appearance or as a shadow reality. For many of our contemporaries, however, it is precisely the reverse. The observable tangible reality, the reality which can be perceived and grasped by the senses, the calculable and predictable reality which we can manipulate, is the actual reality, while the reality of God is suspected of being a mere reflection of the empirical world, a construct, an ideology, a projection or an illusion.
Both practical and theoretical atheism alike were for a long time regarded as the keynote of the age.2 At the end of the 19th century Friedrich Nietzsche proclaimed the death of God and
celebrated this death as the great emancipation of mankind. In the 20th century his message was turned into a designation and an analysis of the age. Following Hölderlin, Martin Heidegger spoke of the absence of God, and Martin Buber of the eclipse of God in our time. Imprisoned by the Gestapo and facing imminent execution, two great Christian witnesses of the resistance, the Lutheran theologian Dietrich Bonhoeffer and the Jesuit Alfred Delp, envisaged the coming of a godless and religion-less age in which the old religious vocabulary would lose its power and become incomprehensible. The Second Vatican Council, too, considered atheism to be among the most serious phenomena of our age (Gaudium et spes [GS], 19). Then in the 70s and 80s the secularisation thesis was able to gain a firm foothold, claiming that the inexorable march of modernisation processes would by its very nature virtually inevitably result in progressive secularisation. Faith in God seemed to be a lost cause.
Today atheism is by no means dead, it has reappeared not so much in the guise of philosophy as in the guise of science, and with nothing short of missionary zeal. Books such as Richard Dawkins’ God Delusion, in particular, rank on the bestseller lists.3 We can of course question whether this kind of atheism is not itself a lost cause. It can hardly be maintained that it represents the summit of contemporary thought. It reiterates in a heavy-handed and distorted manner 19th century positions which have long been considered a thing of the past. As its bestknown critic, A. E. McGrath – himself a scientist – has demonstrated in detail, it is essentially an atheistic fundamentalism. McGrath speaks of an atheism delusion."
1 This proof of God is found already in the Stoa of antiquity (Cicero, Tusc. Disp. I,30; cf. De natura deorum 2,5).Among the Church Fathers this idea was taken up above all by Clemens of Alexandria (Strom V,14).
2 Individual references in: W. Kasper, Der Gott Jesu Christi (1982), reprint Freiburg i. Br. 2008, 50 f
3 This is true above all of R. Dawkins, The God Delusion, 2007. For analysis and critique see: A. McGrath,
Dawkins’ God: Genes, Memes and the Meaning of Life, Oxford 2004; and McGrath Der Atheismuswahn. Eine
Antwort auf Richard Dawkins und den atheistischen Fundamentalismus, Asslar 2007.
Fonte: The Catholic Herald
Para ler a versão completa da palestra: http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/kasperlecture/index.shtml
"The new actuality of God
In the philosophical and theological tradition one proof for the existence of God was derived “exconsensu gentium”, “on the basis of the consensus of all peoples”. The argument postulates that there is no people so savage, no man so primitive that his spirit is totally devoid of any conception of deities.
In the ancient world this consensus was seen as a sign of divine legitimation. There was a
conviction that this unanimity could not rest merely on convention, that it is grounded in a law of nature.1 In the tradition of Plato, the idea of God was until well into the modern era believed to be innate to mankind. The psalmist too says: “Only the fool says in his heart, there is no God” (Ps14,1; 53,1).
Is that still true today? In our age, is it not instead the wise, or those who consider themselves as such, who say precisely that there is no God – and who believe that they can dismiss the idea of God of earlier ages as a God delusion. So the proof of God on the basis of the unanimity of the peoples seems at least for us Europeans to be an idea that has had its day. Surveys confirm that in respect of religion we Europeans rank last on the world scale, and other cultures are surprised that we have renounced the consensus gentium and – viewed from the perspective of universalcultural history – have chosen to follow a separate path.
Doubtless, even among the scientific community in Europe we can still find a substantial number of esteemed scientists for whom God is not dead but a living reality who determines their lives and their thinking. But there are also many to whom God means nothing. They live etsi Deus non daretur. In the ancient world, and in religions in general, God or the divine represent the actual and true reality, while the world by contrast is in danger of being seen merely as appearance or as a shadow reality. For many of our contemporaries, however, it is precisely the reverse. The observable tangible reality, the reality which can be perceived and grasped by the senses, the calculable and predictable reality which we can manipulate, is the actual reality, while the reality of God is suspected of being a mere reflection of the empirical world, a construct, an ideology, a projection or an illusion.
Both practical and theoretical atheism alike were for a long time regarded as the keynote of the age.2 At the end of the 19th century Friedrich Nietzsche proclaimed the death of God and
celebrated this death as the great emancipation of mankind. In the 20th century his message was turned into a designation and an analysis of the age. Following Hölderlin, Martin Heidegger spoke of the absence of God, and Martin Buber of the eclipse of God in our time. Imprisoned by the Gestapo and facing imminent execution, two great Christian witnesses of the resistance, the Lutheran theologian Dietrich Bonhoeffer and the Jesuit Alfred Delp, envisaged the coming of a godless and religion-less age in which the old religious vocabulary would lose its power and become incomprehensible. The Second Vatican Council, too, considered atheism to be among the most serious phenomena of our age (Gaudium et spes [GS], 19). Then in the 70s and 80s the secularisation thesis was able to gain a firm foothold, claiming that the inexorable march of modernisation processes would by its very nature virtually inevitably result in progressive secularisation. Faith in God seemed to be a lost cause.
Today atheism is by no means dead, it has reappeared not so much in the guise of philosophy as in the guise of science, and with nothing short of missionary zeal. Books such as Richard Dawkins’ God Delusion, in particular, rank on the bestseller lists.3 We can of course question whether this kind of atheism is not itself a lost cause. It can hardly be maintained that it represents the summit of contemporary thought. It reiterates in a heavy-handed and distorted manner 19th century positions which have long been considered a thing of the past. As its bestknown critic, A. E. McGrath – himself a scientist – has demonstrated in detail, it is essentially an atheistic fundamentalism. McGrath speaks of an atheism delusion."
1 This proof of God is found already in the Stoa of antiquity (Cicero, Tusc. Disp. I,30; cf. De natura deorum 2,5).Among the Church Fathers this idea was taken up above all by Clemens of Alexandria (Strom V,14).
2 Individual references in: W. Kasper, Der Gott Jesu Christi (1982), reprint Freiburg i. Br. 2008, 50 f
3 This is true above all of R. Dawkins, The God Delusion, 2007. For analysis and critique see: A. McGrath,
Dawkins’ God: Genes, Memes and the Meaning of Life, Oxford 2004; and McGrath Der Atheismuswahn. Eine
Antwort auf Richard Dawkins und den atheistischen Fundamentalismus, Asslar 2007.
Fonte: The Catholic Herald
Para ler a versão completa da palestra: http://www.catholicherald.co.uk/kasperlecture/index.shtml
quinta-feira, 12 de junho de 2008
O Albatroz
Às vezes, por prazer, os homens da equipagem
Pegam um albatroz, imensa ave dos mares,
Que acompanha, indolente parceiro de viagem,
O navio a singrar por glaucos patamares.
Tão logo o estendem sobre as tábuas do convés,
O monarca do azul, canhestro e envergonhado,
Deixa pender, qual par de remos junto aos pés,
As asas em que fulge um branco imaculado.
Antes tão belo, como é feio na desgraça
Esse viajante agora flácido e acanhado!
Um, com cachimbo, lhe enche o bico de fumaça,
Outro, a coxear, imita o enfermo outrora alado!
O Poeta se compara ao príncipe da altura
Que enfrenta os vendavais e ri da seta no ar;
Exilado ao chão, em meio à turba obscura,
As asas de gigante impedem-no de andar.
Baudelaire
Pegam um albatroz, imensa ave dos mares,
Que acompanha, indolente parceiro de viagem,
O navio a singrar por glaucos patamares.
Tão logo o estendem sobre as tábuas do convés,
O monarca do azul, canhestro e envergonhado,
Deixa pender, qual par de remos junto aos pés,
As asas em que fulge um branco imaculado.
Antes tão belo, como é feio na desgraça
Esse viajante agora flácido e acanhado!
Um, com cachimbo, lhe enche o bico de fumaça,
Outro, a coxear, imita o enfermo outrora alado!
O Poeta se compara ao príncipe da altura
Que enfrenta os vendavais e ri da seta no ar;
Exilado ao chão, em meio à turba obscura,
As asas de gigante impedem-no de andar.
Baudelaire
quarta-feira, 11 de junho de 2008
Populorum Progressio
Esquecida por setores da intelectualidade católica ainda fascinados pelo canto de sereia de uma certa ilha caribenha , ignorada em Perdizes, a doutrina social da Igreja ainda se mostra atual. Este é o caso, por ex., da “ Populorum Progressio”, Carta Encíclica do Papa Paulo VI sobre o desenvolvimeno dos povos, de 26 de março de 1967.
A atualidade do diagnóstico, assim como das medidas propostas é uma indicação da qualidade do documento, mas, também, infelizmente, do muito que ainda deve ser realizado para resolver os problemas discutidos no texto: a fome, o desequilíbrio nas trocas comerciais, um liberalismo sem face humana, entre outros.
Recomendo fortemente a leitura desta Encíclia e transcrevo abaixo algumas passagens:
“2. EQÜIDADE NAS RELAÇÕES COMERCIAIS
56. Ainda que fossem consideráveis, seriam ilusórios os esforços feitos para ajudar, no plano financeiro e técnico, os países em via de desenvolvimento, se os resultados fossem parcialmente anulados pelo jogo das relações comerciais entre países ricos e países pobres. A confiança destes últimos ficaria abalada, se tivessem a impressão de que uma das mãos lhes tira o que a outra lhe dá.
Distorção crescente
5'7. As nações altamente industrializadas exportam sobretudo produtos fabricados, enquanto as economias pouco desenvolvidas vendem apenas produtos agrícolas e matérias primas. Aqueles, graças ao progresso técnico, aumentam rapidamente de valor e encontram um mercado satisfatório. Pelo contrário, os produtos primários provenientes dos países em via de desenvolvimento sofrem grandes e repentinas variações de preços, muito aquém da subida progressiva dos outros. Daqui surgem grandes dificuldades para as nações pouco industrializadas, quando contam com as exportações para equilibrar a sua economia e realizar o seu plano de desenvolvimento. Os povos pobres ficam sempre pobres e os ricos tornam-se cada vez mais ricos.
Para além do liberalismo
58. Quer dizer que a regra da livre troca já não pode, por si mesma, reger as relações internacionais. As suas vantagens são evidentes quando os países se encontram mais ou menos nas mesmas condições de poder econômico: constitui estímulo ao progresso e recompensa do esforço. Por isso os países industrialmente desenvolvidos vêem nela uma lei de justiça. Já o mesmo não acontece quando as condições são demasiado diferentes de país para país: os preços "livremente" estabelecidos no mercado podem levar a conseqüências iníquas. Devemos reconhecer que está em causa o princípio fundamental do liberalismo, como regra de transações comerciais.
Justiça dos contratos ao nível dos povos
59. Continua a valer o ensinamento de Leão XIII, na encíclica Rerum novarum: em condições demasiado diferentes, o consentimento das partes não basta para garantir a justiça do contrato, e a regra do livre consentimento permanece subordinada às exigências do direito natural. (57) O que era verdade do justo salário individual, também o é dos contratos internacionais: uma economia de intercâmbio já não pode apoiar-se sobre a lei única da livre concorrência, que freqüentes vezes leva à ditadura econômica. A liberdade das transações só é eqüitativa quando sujeita às exigências da justiça social.
Medidas a tomar
60. Foi o que já compreenderam os próprios países desenvolvidos, que se esforçam por estabelecer no interior da sua economia, por meios apropriados, um equilíbrio que a concorrência, entregue a si mesma, tende a comprometer. Assim, muitas vezes sustentam a sua agricultura à custa de sacrifícios impostos aos setores econômicos mais favorecidos. E também, para manterem as relações comerciais que se estabelecem entre países e países, particularmente em regime de mercado comum, adotam políticas financeiras, fiscais e sociais, que se esforçam por restituir às indústrias concorrentes, desigualmente prósperas, possibilidades semelhantes.
Convenções internacionais
61. Mas não se podem usar nisto dois pesos e duas medidas. O que vale para a economia nacional, o que se admite entre países desenvolvidos, vale também para as relações comerciais entre países ricos e países pobres. Sem o abolir, é preciso, ao contrário, manter o mercado de concorrência dentro dos limites que o tornam justo e moral e, portanto, humano. No comércio entre economias desenvolvidas e subdesenvolvidas, as situações são demasiado discordantes e as liberdades reais demasiado desproporcionadas. A justiça social exige do comércio internacional, para ser humano e moral, que restabeleça, entre as duas partes, pelo menos certa igualdade de possibilidades. É um objetivo a atingir a longo prazo. Mas, para o alcançar, é preciso, desde já, criar uma igualdade real nas discussões e negociações. Também neste campo se sente a utilidade de convenções internacionais num âmbito suficientemente vasto: estabeleceriam normas gerais, capazes de regular certos preços, garantir certas produções e sustentar certas indústrias nascentes. Não há quem duvide de que tal esforço comum, no sentido de maior justiça nas relações comerciais entre os povos, traria aos países em via de desenvolvimento um auxílio positivo, cujos efeitos seriam não só imediatos, mas também duradouros.
Obstáculos a vencer: nacionalismo
62. Existem ainda outros obstáculos à formação de um mundo mais justo e mais estruturado numa solidariedade universal: queremos falar do nacionalismo e do racismo. Comunidades recentemente elevadas à independência política, é natural que se mostrem ciosas de uma unidade nacional ainda frágil, e se esforcem por protegê-la. É também normal que nações de cultura antiga se sintam orgulhosas do patrimônio que lhes legou a história. Mas estes sentimentos legítimos devem ser sublimados pela caridade universal, que engloba todos os membros da família humana. O nacionalismo isola os povos, contrariando o seu verdadeiro bem. E seria particularmente nocivo onde a fraqueza das economias nacionais exige, pelo contrário, um pôr em comum esforços, conhecimentos e meios financeiros, para se realizarem os programas de desenvolvimento e aumentarem os intercâmbios comerciais e culturais.
Racismo
63. O racismo não é apanágio exclusivo das nações jovens, onde ele se dissimula por vezes sob aparências de rivalidades de clãs e de partidos políticos, com notável detrimento da justiça e perigo da paz civil. Durante a era colonial o racismo grassou, com freqüência, entre colonos e indígenas, impedindo o recíproco e fecundo entendimento e provocando, ressentimentos após injustiças reais. E continua ainda a ser obstáculo à colaboração entre nações desfavorecidas, e fermento de divisão e ódio, mesmo dentro dos próprios Estados quando, contrariamente aos direitos imprescritíveis da pessoa humana, indivíduos e famílias se vêem injustamente submetidos a um regime de exceção por motivo de raça ou de cor.
Para um mundo solidário
64. Aflige-nos profundamente tal situação, tão carregada de ameaças para o futuro. No entanto, não perdemos a esperança: sobre as incompreensões e os egoísmos, acabarão por prevalecer uma necessidade mais viva de colaboração e um sentido mais agudo de solidariedade. Esperamos que os países, cujo desenvolvimento é menos avançado, saibam aproveitar-se dos seus vizinhos para organizar uns com os outros, em áreas territoriais mais extensas, zonas de desenvolvimento combinado, estabelecendo programas comuns, coordenando os investimentos, repartindo as possibilidades de produção e organizando os intercâmbios. Esperamos também que as organizações multilaterais e internacionais encontrem, por meio da necessária reorganização, os caminhos que permitam aos povos ainda em via de desenvolvimento, sair das situações difíceis, em que parecem estar embaraçados, e descobrir, na fidelidade ao seu caráter próprio, os meios do progresso social e humano.
Povos artífices do seu destino
65. A isto temos de chegar: a que a solidariedade mundial, cada vez mais eficiente, permita a todos os povos tornarem-se artífices do seu destino. Demasiadas vezes o passado esteve marcado por relações de força entre as nações: virá um dia em que as relações internacionais hão de possuir o cunho de respeito mútuo e de amizade, de interdependência na colaboração e de promoção comum sob a responsabilidade de cada indivíduo. Os povos mais novos ou mais fracos reclamam a sua parte ativa na construção de um mundo melhor, mais respeitador dos direitos e da vocação de cada um. É reclamação legítima: a todos compete ouvi-la e satisfazê-la.”
Fonte:http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/paul_vi/encyclicals/documents/hf_p-vi_enc_26031967_populorum_po.html
A atualidade do diagnóstico, assim como das medidas propostas é uma indicação da qualidade do documento, mas, também, infelizmente, do muito que ainda deve ser realizado para resolver os problemas discutidos no texto: a fome, o desequilíbrio nas trocas comerciais, um liberalismo sem face humana, entre outros.
Recomendo fortemente a leitura desta Encíclia e transcrevo abaixo algumas passagens:
“2. EQÜIDADE NAS RELAÇÕES COMERCIAIS
56. Ainda que fossem consideráveis, seriam ilusórios os esforços feitos para ajudar, no plano financeiro e técnico, os países em via de desenvolvimento, se os resultados fossem parcialmente anulados pelo jogo das relações comerciais entre países ricos e países pobres. A confiança destes últimos ficaria abalada, se tivessem a impressão de que uma das mãos lhes tira o que a outra lhe dá.
Distorção crescente
5'7. As nações altamente industrializadas exportam sobretudo produtos fabricados, enquanto as economias pouco desenvolvidas vendem apenas produtos agrícolas e matérias primas. Aqueles, graças ao progresso técnico, aumentam rapidamente de valor e encontram um mercado satisfatório. Pelo contrário, os produtos primários provenientes dos países em via de desenvolvimento sofrem grandes e repentinas variações de preços, muito aquém da subida progressiva dos outros. Daqui surgem grandes dificuldades para as nações pouco industrializadas, quando contam com as exportações para equilibrar a sua economia e realizar o seu plano de desenvolvimento. Os povos pobres ficam sempre pobres e os ricos tornam-se cada vez mais ricos.
Para além do liberalismo
58. Quer dizer que a regra da livre troca já não pode, por si mesma, reger as relações internacionais. As suas vantagens são evidentes quando os países se encontram mais ou menos nas mesmas condições de poder econômico: constitui estímulo ao progresso e recompensa do esforço. Por isso os países industrialmente desenvolvidos vêem nela uma lei de justiça. Já o mesmo não acontece quando as condições são demasiado diferentes de país para país: os preços "livremente" estabelecidos no mercado podem levar a conseqüências iníquas. Devemos reconhecer que está em causa o princípio fundamental do liberalismo, como regra de transações comerciais.
Justiça dos contratos ao nível dos povos
59. Continua a valer o ensinamento de Leão XIII, na encíclica Rerum novarum: em condições demasiado diferentes, o consentimento das partes não basta para garantir a justiça do contrato, e a regra do livre consentimento permanece subordinada às exigências do direito natural. (57) O que era verdade do justo salário individual, também o é dos contratos internacionais: uma economia de intercâmbio já não pode apoiar-se sobre a lei única da livre concorrência, que freqüentes vezes leva à ditadura econômica. A liberdade das transações só é eqüitativa quando sujeita às exigências da justiça social.
Medidas a tomar
60. Foi o que já compreenderam os próprios países desenvolvidos, que se esforçam por estabelecer no interior da sua economia, por meios apropriados, um equilíbrio que a concorrência, entregue a si mesma, tende a comprometer. Assim, muitas vezes sustentam a sua agricultura à custa de sacrifícios impostos aos setores econômicos mais favorecidos. E também, para manterem as relações comerciais que se estabelecem entre países e países, particularmente em regime de mercado comum, adotam políticas financeiras, fiscais e sociais, que se esforçam por restituir às indústrias concorrentes, desigualmente prósperas, possibilidades semelhantes.
Convenções internacionais
61. Mas não se podem usar nisto dois pesos e duas medidas. O que vale para a economia nacional, o que se admite entre países desenvolvidos, vale também para as relações comerciais entre países ricos e países pobres. Sem o abolir, é preciso, ao contrário, manter o mercado de concorrência dentro dos limites que o tornam justo e moral e, portanto, humano. No comércio entre economias desenvolvidas e subdesenvolvidas, as situações são demasiado discordantes e as liberdades reais demasiado desproporcionadas. A justiça social exige do comércio internacional, para ser humano e moral, que restabeleça, entre as duas partes, pelo menos certa igualdade de possibilidades. É um objetivo a atingir a longo prazo. Mas, para o alcançar, é preciso, desde já, criar uma igualdade real nas discussões e negociações. Também neste campo se sente a utilidade de convenções internacionais num âmbito suficientemente vasto: estabeleceriam normas gerais, capazes de regular certos preços, garantir certas produções e sustentar certas indústrias nascentes. Não há quem duvide de que tal esforço comum, no sentido de maior justiça nas relações comerciais entre os povos, traria aos países em via de desenvolvimento um auxílio positivo, cujos efeitos seriam não só imediatos, mas também duradouros.
Obstáculos a vencer: nacionalismo
62. Existem ainda outros obstáculos à formação de um mundo mais justo e mais estruturado numa solidariedade universal: queremos falar do nacionalismo e do racismo. Comunidades recentemente elevadas à independência política, é natural que se mostrem ciosas de uma unidade nacional ainda frágil, e se esforcem por protegê-la. É também normal que nações de cultura antiga se sintam orgulhosas do patrimônio que lhes legou a história. Mas estes sentimentos legítimos devem ser sublimados pela caridade universal, que engloba todos os membros da família humana. O nacionalismo isola os povos, contrariando o seu verdadeiro bem. E seria particularmente nocivo onde a fraqueza das economias nacionais exige, pelo contrário, um pôr em comum esforços, conhecimentos e meios financeiros, para se realizarem os programas de desenvolvimento e aumentarem os intercâmbios comerciais e culturais.
Racismo
63. O racismo não é apanágio exclusivo das nações jovens, onde ele se dissimula por vezes sob aparências de rivalidades de clãs e de partidos políticos, com notável detrimento da justiça e perigo da paz civil. Durante a era colonial o racismo grassou, com freqüência, entre colonos e indígenas, impedindo o recíproco e fecundo entendimento e provocando, ressentimentos após injustiças reais. E continua ainda a ser obstáculo à colaboração entre nações desfavorecidas, e fermento de divisão e ódio, mesmo dentro dos próprios Estados quando, contrariamente aos direitos imprescritíveis da pessoa humana, indivíduos e famílias se vêem injustamente submetidos a um regime de exceção por motivo de raça ou de cor.
Para um mundo solidário
64. Aflige-nos profundamente tal situação, tão carregada de ameaças para o futuro. No entanto, não perdemos a esperança: sobre as incompreensões e os egoísmos, acabarão por prevalecer uma necessidade mais viva de colaboração e um sentido mais agudo de solidariedade. Esperamos que os países, cujo desenvolvimento é menos avançado, saibam aproveitar-se dos seus vizinhos para organizar uns com os outros, em áreas territoriais mais extensas, zonas de desenvolvimento combinado, estabelecendo programas comuns, coordenando os investimentos, repartindo as possibilidades de produção e organizando os intercâmbios. Esperamos também que as organizações multilaterais e internacionais encontrem, por meio da necessária reorganização, os caminhos que permitam aos povos ainda em via de desenvolvimento, sair das situações difíceis, em que parecem estar embaraçados, e descobrir, na fidelidade ao seu caráter próprio, os meios do progresso social e humano.
Povos artífices do seu destino
65. A isto temos de chegar: a que a solidariedade mundial, cada vez mais eficiente, permita a todos os povos tornarem-se artífices do seu destino. Demasiadas vezes o passado esteve marcado por relações de força entre as nações: virá um dia em que as relações internacionais hão de possuir o cunho de respeito mútuo e de amizade, de interdependência na colaboração e de promoção comum sob a responsabilidade de cada indivíduo. Os povos mais novos ou mais fracos reclamam a sua parte ativa na construção de um mundo melhor, mais respeitador dos direitos e da vocação de cada um. É reclamação legítima: a todos compete ouvi-la e satisfazê-la.”
Fonte:http://www.vatican.va/holy_father/paul_vi/encyclicals/documents/hf_p-vi_enc_26031967_populorum_po.html
terça-feira, 10 de junho de 2008
PIB no último trimestre
Para tristeza da turma que se passa por economista em Barão Geraldo e Perdizes a economia brasileira continua a apresentar resultados robustos, demonstrando, que apesar de alguns equivocos, a política econômica do atual governo está no caminho certo. Os números, tambem, parecem indicar, que a decisão de elevar a taxa de juros é correta.
"O PIB a preços de mercado apresentou elevação de 5,8% no primeiro trimestre de 2008, em relação a igual período de 2007. O Valor Adicionado a preços básicos apresentou um aumento de 5,5% e os Impostos sobre Produtos uma elevação de 8,0%. Na taxa acumulada em quatro trimestres terminados no primeiro trimestre de 2008, o crescimento foi de 5,8%.
O Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) a preços de mercado apresentou crescimento de 0,7% na comparação do primeiro trimestre de 2008 contra o quarto trimestre de 2007, levando-se em consideração a série com ajuste sazonal. Os destaques foram para o setor da Indústria, com crescimento de 1,6%, e Serviços com elevação de 1,0%. Já a Agropecuária apresentou queda de 3,5%.
Ainda na comparação com o trimestre imediatamente anterior, o crescimento da Despesa de Consumo da Administração Pública foi de 4,5% no primeiro trimestre deste ano, após variação negativa de 0,2% no trimestre anterior. A Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo cresceu 1,3%, seguida da Despesa de Consumo das Famílias com 0,3%. Já pelo lado da demanda externa, as Exportações de Bens e Serviços apresentaram queda de 5,7%. Por outro lado, as Importações de Bens e Serviços cresceram 0,8%, apresentando o décimo crescimento seguido nessa base de comparação.
Taxa trimestral em relação ao mesmo trimestre do ano anterior
O PIB a preços de mercado apresentou elevação de 5,8% no primeiro trimestre de 2008, em relação a igual período de 2007. O Valor Adicionado a preços básicos apresentou um aumento de 5,5% e os Impostos sobre Produtos uma elevação de 8,0%. Dentre os setores que contribuíram para a geração do Valor Adicionado, a Indústria obteve o melhor desempenho com uma taxa positiva de 6,9%, seguida pelos Serviços, com elevação de 5,0%, e Agropecuária com crescimento de 2,4% na comparação com o mesmo trimestre de 2007.
A taxa da Agropecuária pode ser, em grande parte, explicada pelo desempenho de alguns produtos que apresentaram safra relevante no trimestre, segundo o Levantamento Sistemático da Produção Agrícola (LSPA-IBGE) de maio. Segundo o levantamento, o milho, arroz e soja, por exemplo, apresentaram estimativas de crescimento de produção no ano de 2008 de 11,4%, 8,6%, e 2,6%, respectivamente. Por outro lado, o algodão herbáceo e o fumo registraram estimativas de queda de produção de 3,7% e 1,9%, respectivamente.
Na atividade industrial, o destaque foi a Construção Civil que registrou taxa de crescimento de 8,8%, a maior taxa desde o segundo trimestre de 2004 (10,6%). Em seguida destacam-se a Indústria de Transformação com 7,3% de crescimento; Eletricidade e gás, água, esgoto e limpeza urbana com 5,5% e a Extrativa Mineral com 3,3%.
O setor de Serviços apresentou crescimento de 5,0% na comparação com o mesmo período do ano anterior. Os maiores destaques foram para Intermediação Financeira e Seguros (15,2%); Serviços de Informação (9,5%) e o Comércio (atacadista e varejista) com uma taxa positiva de 7,7%. Os outros subsetores tiveram os seguintes desempenhos: Transporte, Armazenagem e Correio (3,7%); Outros Serviços (2,6%); Serviços Imobiliários e Aluguel (2,1%) e Administração, Saúde e Educação Pública (1,1%).
Consumo das Famílias cresce pela 18ª vez consecutiva
Dentre os componentes da demanda interna, a Despesa de Consumo das Famílias alcançou a taxa positiva de 6,6%, o décimo oitavo crescimento consecutivo na taxa trimestral em relação ao mesmo trimestre do ano anterior, favorecida pela elevação da massa salarial real dos trabalhadores e pelo crescimento, em termos nominais, do saldo de operações de crédito do sistema financeiro com recursos livres para as pessoas físicas. Já a Despesa de Consumo da Administração Pública apresentou crescimento de 5,8% no primeiro trimestre de 2008 contra o mesmo período de 2007. A Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo registrou crescimento de 15,2%, explicado, principalmente, pelo aumento da produção e da importação de máquinas e equipamentos. Ainda nesse trimestre, a aceleração do crescimento da Construção Civil foi destaque e contribuiu para o desempenho positivo da Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo.
Pelo lado da demanda externa, as Exportações de Bens e Serviços que vinham com taxas positivas desde o terceiro trimestre de 2006, registraram uma queda de 2,1% em relação ao mesmo trimestre do ano anterior. As Importações de Bens e Serviços também apresentaram mais uma vez elevação nesta comparação, da ordem de 18,9%, o décimo oitavo crescimento seguido desde o quarto trimestre de 2003.
Taxa acumulada nos últimos quatro trimestres (em relação ao mesmo período do ano anterior)
O PIB a preços de mercado acumulado nos quatro trimestres terminados no primeiro trimestre de 2008, apresentou crescimento de 5,8% em relação aos quatro trimestres imediatamente anteriores. Esta taxa resultou da elevação de 5,2% do Valor Adicionado a preços básicos e do aumento de 9,4% nos Impostos sobre Produtos. O resultado do Valor Adicionado neste tipo de comparação decorreu do desempenho positivo dos três setores que o compõem: Indústria (5,7%), Agropecuária (4,9%) e Serviços (4,9%).
Dentre os subsetores da Indústria, as taxas mais altas foram a da Construção Civil com 6,5% e a da Indústria da Transformação com 6,0%. A Eletricidade e gás, água, esgoto e limpeza urbana e a Extrativa Mineral apresentaram os respectivos crescimentos: 5,4% e 2,8%. As maiores elevações nos Serviços foram nos subsetores Intermediação Financeira e Seguros; Serviços de Informação; e Comércio (14,5% , 8,5% e 7,9%, respectivamente).
Na análise da demanda, a Despesa de Consumo das Famílias cresceu 6,7%. A Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo apresentou crescimento de 14,9%, o décimo sexto crescimento seguido. Um dos fatores que possibilitaram este incremento foi o desempenho da Construção Civil, que vem se recuperando desde o terceiro trimestre de 2004, nessa base de comparação e o crescimento da importação de máquinas e equipamentos favorecida pela valorização do Real frente ao Dólar. Por fim, a Despesa de Consumo da Administração Pública atingiu 3,6%.
Já no âmbito do setor externo, as Exportações de Bens e Serviços apresentaram um crescimento de 4,6% e as Importações de Bens e Serviços tiveram elevação de 20,4%.
Valores correntes e conta econômica trimestral
O Produto Interno Bruto medido a preços de mercado, para o primeiro trimestre de 2008, alcançou R$ 665,5 bilhões, sendo R$ 560,7 bilhões referentes ao Valor Adicionado a preços básicos e R$ 104,8 bilhões aos Impostos sobre Produtos.
No resultado do trimestre, a Necessidade de Financiamento alcançou R$ 21 bilhões contra R$ 0,9 bilhão em 2007, redução explicada, principalmente, pela redução no Saldo Externo de Bens e Serviços no montante de R$ 15 bilhões e aumento de R$ 4,6 bilhões na Renda Líquida de Propriedade Enviada ao Resto do Mundo.
A Renda Nacional Bruta atingiu R$ 647,3 bilhões no primeiro trimestre de 2008 contra R$ 585,2 bilhões no respectivo período de 2007. Nessa mesma base de comparação a Poupança Bruta atingiu R$ 111,8 bilhões contra R$ 102,8 bilhões no mesmo período do ano anterior."
Fonte: IBGE
"O PIB a preços de mercado apresentou elevação de 5,8% no primeiro trimestre de 2008, em relação a igual período de 2007. O Valor Adicionado a preços básicos apresentou um aumento de 5,5% e os Impostos sobre Produtos uma elevação de 8,0%. Na taxa acumulada em quatro trimestres terminados no primeiro trimestre de 2008, o crescimento foi de 5,8%.
O Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) a preços de mercado apresentou crescimento de 0,7% na comparação do primeiro trimestre de 2008 contra o quarto trimestre de 2007, levando-se em consideração a série com ajuste sazonal. Os destaques foram para o setor da Indústria, com crescimento de 1,6%, e Serviços com elevação de 1,0%. Já a Agropecuária apresentou queda de 3,5%.
Ainda na comparação com o trimestre imediatamente anterior, o crescimento da Despesa de Consumo da Administração Pública foi de 4,5% no primeiro trimestre deste ano, após variação negativa de 0,2% no trimestre anterior. A Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo cresceu 1,3%, seguida da Despesa de Consumo das Famílias com 0,3%. Já pelo lado da demanda externa, as Exportações de Bens e Serviços apresentaram queda de 5,7%. Por outro lado, as Importações de Bens e Serviços cresceram 0,8%, apresentando o décimo crescimento seguido nessa base de comparação.
Taxa trimestral em relação ao mesmo trimestre do ano anterior
O PIB a preços de mercado apresentou elevação de 5,8% no primeiro trimestre de 2008, em relação a igual período de 2007. O Valor Adicionado a preços básicos apresentou um aumento de 5,5% e os Impostos sobre Produtos uma elevação de 8,0%. Dentre os setores que contribuíram para a geração do Valor Adicionado, a Indústria obteve o melhor desempenho com uma taxa positiva de 6,9%, seguida pelos Serviços, com elevação de 5,0%, e Agropecuária com crescimento de 2,4% na comparação com o mesmo trimestre de 2007.
A taxa da Agropecuária pode ser, em grande parte, explicada pelo desempenho de alguns produtos que apresentaram safra relevante no trimestre, segundo o Levantamento Sistemático da Produção Agrícola (LSPA-IBGE) de maio. Segundo o levantamento, o milho, arroz e soja, por exemplo, apresentaram estimativas de crescimento de produção no ano de 2008 de 11,4%, 8,6%, e 2,6%, respectivamente. Por outro lado, o algodão herbáceo e o fumo registraram estimativas de queda de produção de 3,7% e 1,9%, respectivamente.
Na atividade industrial, o destaque foi a Construção Civil que registrou taxa de crescimento de 8,8%, a maior taxa desde o segundo trimestre de 2004 (10,6%). Em seguida destacam-se a Indústria de Transformação com 7,3% de crescimento; Eletricidade e gás, água, esgoto e limpeza urbana com 5,5% e a Extrativa Mineral com 3,3%.
O setor de Serviços apresentou crescimento de 5,0% na comparação com o mesmo período do ano anterior. Os maiores destaques foram para Intermediação Financeira e Seguros (15,2%); Serviços de Informação (9,5%) e o Comércio (atacadista e varejista) com uma taxa positiva de 7,7%. Os outros subsetores tiveram os seguintes desempenhos: Transporte, Armazenagem e Correio (3,7%); Outros Serviços (2,6%); Serviços Imobiliários e Aluguel (2,1%) e Administração, Saúde e Educação Pública (1,1%).
Consumo das Famílias cresce pela 18ª vez consecutiva
Dentre os componentes da demanda interna, a Despesa de Consumo das Famílias alcançou a taxa positiva de 6,6%, o décimo oitavo crescimento consecutivo na taxa trimestral em relação ao mesmo trimestre do ano anterior, favorecida pela elevação da massa salarial real dos trabalhadores e pelo crescimento, em termos nominais, do saldo de operações de crédito do sistema financeiro com recursos livres para as pessoas físicas. Já a Despesa de Consumo da Administração Pública apresentou crescimento de 5,8% no primeiro trimestre de 2008 contra o mesmo período de 2007. A Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo registrou crescimento de 15,2%, explicado, principalmente, pelo aumento da produção e da importação de máquinas e equipamentos. Ainda nesse trimestre, a aceleração do crescimento da Construção Civil foi destaque e contribuiu para o desempenho positivo da Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo.
Pelo lado da demanda externa, as Exportações de Bens e Serviços que vinham com taxas positivas desde o terceiro trimestre de 2006, registraram uma queda de 2,1% em relação ao mesmo trimestre do ano anterior. As Importações de Bens e Serviços também apresentaram mais uma vez elevação nesta comparação, da ordem de 18,9%, o décimo oitavo crescimento seguido desde o quarto trimestre de 2003.
Taxa acumulada nos últimos quatro trimestres (em relação ao mesmo período do ano anterior)
O PIB a preços de mercado acumulado nos quatro trimestres terminados no primeiro trimestre de 2008, apresentou crescimento de 5,8% em relação aos quatro trimestres imediatamente anteriores. Esta taxa resultou da elevação de 5,2% do Valor Adicionado a preços básicos e do aumento de 9,4% nos Impostos sobre Produtos. O resultado do Valor Adicionado neste tipo de comparação decorreu do desempenho positivo dos três setores que o compõem: Indústria (5,7%), Agropecuária (4,9%) e Serviços (4,9%).
Dentre os subsetores da Indústria, as taxas mais altas foram a da Construção Civil com 6,5% e a da Indústria da Transformação com 6,0%. A Eletricidade e gás, água, esgoto e limpeza urbana e a Extrativa Mineral apresentaram os respectivos crescimentos: 5,4% e 2,8%. As maiores elevações nos Serviços foram nos subsetores Intermediação Financeira e Seguros; Serviços de Informação; e Comércio (14,5% , 8,5% e 7,9%, respectivamente).
Na análise da demanda, a Despesa de Consumo das Famílias cresceu 6,7%. A Formação Bruta de Capital Fixo apresentou crescimento de 14,9%, o décimo sexto crescimento seguido. Um dos fatores que possibilitaram este incremento foi o desempenho da Construção Civil, que vem se recuperando desde o terceiro trimestre de 2004, nessa base de comparação e o crescimento da importação de máquinas e equipamentos favorecida pela valorização do Real frente ao Dólar. Por fim, a Despesa de Consumo da Administração Pública atingiu 3,6%.
Já no âmbito do setor externo, as Exportações de Bens e Serviços apresentaram um crescimento de 4,6% e as Importações de Bens e Serviços tiveram elevação de 20,4%.
Valores correntes e conta econômica trimestral
O Produto Interno Bruto medido a preços de mercado, para o primeiro trimestre de 2008, alcançou R$ 665,5 bilhões, sendo R$ 560,7 bilhões referentes ao Valor Adicionado a preços básicos e R$ 104,8 bilhões aos Impostos sobre Produtos.
No resultado do trimestre, a Necessidade de Financiamento alcançou R$ 21 bilhões contra R$ 0,9 bilhão em 2007, redução explicada, principalmente, pela redução no Saldo Externo de Bens e Serviços no montante de R$ 15 bilhões e aumento de R$ 4,6 bilhões na Renda Líquida de Propriedade Enviada ao Resto do Mundo.
A Renda Nacional Bruta atingiu R$ 647,3 bilhões no primeiro trimestre de 2008 contra R$ 585,2 bilhões no respectivo período de 2007. Nessa mesma base de comparação a Poupança Bruta atingiu R$ 111,8 bilhões contra R$ 102,8 bilhões no mesmo período do ano anterior."
Fonte: IBGE
segunda-feira, 9 de junho de 2008
Racionalidade
Racional ou irracional? Como definir estes dois comportamentos? Sabemos não ser nada fácil. Uma aplicação interessante destes dois conceitos aparece em um trabalho do economista Pandélo, segundo reportagem, publicada, na Folha de hoje sobre o comportamento do consumidor em relação ao juro e ao crédito. Na relação entre juros versus demanda, no comportamento racional, ”a demanda desaba se os juros sobem”; no irracional, “a demanda aumenta conforme sobem os juros”. Na relação entre prazo versus demanda, no racional; “demanda aumenta com prazo maior”, no irracional, “ demanda aumenta conforme sobem os juros”.
O resultado, obvio, é que os consumidores estão mais preocupados com o valor das mensalidades e desconhecem o valor da taxa de juros. Naturalmente, quando maior o número de prestações, menor o valor das mensalidades. Neste cenário o aumento da taxa de juros tem pouco impacto sobre o seu comportamento, o que implica afirmar que para reduzir a pressão sobre a demanda é recomendável fazer política de crédito, ou seja diminuir o número de prestações.
O uso dos conceitos de “racionalidade” e “irracionalidade” neste trabalho é um bom indicador da contribuição que uma formação em filosofia, ainda que elementar, pode oferecer não somente a economia, mas tambem, a outras áreas do conhecimento.
O resultado, obvio, é que os consumidores estão mais preocupados com o valor das mensalidades e desconhecem o valor da taxa de juros. Naturalmente, quando maior o número de prestações, menor o valor das mensalidades. Neste cenário o aumento da taxa de juros tem pouco impacto sobre o seu comportamento, o que implica afirmar que para reduzir a pressão sobre a demanda é recomendável fazer política de crédito, ou seja diminuir o número de prestações.
O uso dos conceitos de “racionalidade” e “irracionalidade” neste trabalho é um bom indicador da contribuição que uma formação em filosofia, ainda que elementar, pode oferecer não somente a economia, mas tambem, a outras áreas do conhecimento.
domingo, 8 de junho de 2008
A Taxa de juros: fenômeno psicológico ou convencional?
No mestrado meu professor de economia monetária sempre nos alertava para a irrelevância da opinião dos jornalistas econômicos, usando com freqüência a expressão “trabalho jornalístico” ou “comentário jornalístico” para rebater uma opinião, considerada superficial, sobre questões monetárias.
Sempre penso nele quando sou obrigado a ler as colunas do nosso pobre e superficial jornalismo econômico: sempre prontos a repetir a última obviedade e/ou superficialidade sem a necessária reflexão...
Este, contudo, não é o caso de uma coluna recente do Vinícius T. Freire da Folha, onde argumenta que “os dados sugerem que começa a haver alguma encrenca nos preços quando a taxa real de juros ronda os 7%, 8% ao ano, como ocorreu no ciclo de desafogo monetário mais recente”. Estaria ele sugerindo ser estes os valores para a taxa natural de juros no Brasil? Esta é uma questão importante sobre a politica monetária brasileira e, estranhamente, passou em branco.
Falar de taxas de juros é sempre controverso, mas a existência de um taxa natural de juros( Wicksell) esta sempre rondando o debate sobre a política monetária. Keynes, em uma passagem pouco citada da Teoria Geral argumenta que “talvez fosse mais exato dizer que a taxa de juros seja um fenômeno altamente convencional do que basicamente psicológico”, sendo que “qualquer taxa de juros aceita com suficiente convicção como provavelmente duradoura, será duradoura; sujeita, naturalmente, em uma sociedade em mudanças a flutuações originadas por diversos motivos, em torno do nível normal esperado” Ele observa, também, que “a convenção nem sempre oferecerá muita resistência a uma lógica contundente e a um firme propósito da autoridade monetária”. ( negritos do autor deste post). Keynes era um otimista, é o que podemos concluir a partir da resistência da convenção no caso brasileiro.
Sempre penso nele quando sou obrigado a ler as colunas do nosso pobre e superficial jornalismo econômico: sempre prontos a repetir a última obviedade e/ou superficialidade sem a necessária reflexão...
Este, contudo, não é o caso de uma coluna recente do Vinícius T. Freire da Folha, onde argumenta que “os dados sugerem que começa a haver alguma encrenca nos preços quando a taxa real de juros ronda os 7%, 8% ao ano, como ocorreu no ciclo de desafogo monetário mais recente”. Estaria ele sugerindo ser estes os valores para a taxa natural de juros no Brasil? Esta é uma questão importante sobre a politica monetária brasileira e, estranhamente, passou em branco.
Falar de taxas de juros é sempre controverso, mas a existência de um taxa natural de juros( Wicksell) esta sempre rondando o debate sobre a política monetária. Keynes, em uma passagem pouco citada da Teoria Geral argumenta que “talvez fosse mais exato dizer que a taxa de juros seja um fenômeno altamente convencional do que basicamente psicológico”, sendo que “qualquer taxa de juros aceita com suficiente convicção como provavelmente duradoura, será duradoura; sujeita, naturalmente, em uma sociedade em mudanças a flutuações originadas por diversos motivos, em torno do nível normal esperado” Ele observa, também, que “a convenção nem sempre oferecerá muita resistência a uma lógica contundente e a um firme propósito da autoridade monetária”. ( negritos do autor deste post). Keynes era um otimista, é o que podemos concluir a partir da resistência da convenção no caso brasileiro.
sábado, 7 de junho de 2008
Ireland's economic boom: the true causes
Interessante artigo sobre as causas do bom desempenho da economia da Irlanda. O autor critica a leitura da OECD, reafirma a importância da politica fiscal e acrescenta um elemento novo: "competition policies".Como mencionado em outro post a experiência da Irlanda é um divisor d'agua na discussão sobre a política fiscal.
A reply to the OECD Economic Survey on Ireland
Sir, you are right in asserting that the Irish economy is no longer the sick man of Europe (Observer 217/218, 1999). Whereas Ireland’s national income per head grew by just 1.8% per year for most of the 20th century, during the last six years income per head has grown by over 6% annually. Although the transformation in economic performance is relatively recent, the Irish economy is an interesting case study into the link between economic policy and growth.
Your Economic Survey of Ireland 1998-1999 illustrates how difficult it is for even the most expert economists to explain Ireland’s turnaround. One reason for the confusion is that the boom reflects a confluence of several factors and to isolate the influence of any subset of them can be problematic. Another problem is the different time lags between policy and effect: changes in education policy, for example, will take years to feed through, whereas cuts in taxes will be felt more quickly.
The OECD’s view is that the most important causal influence has been inflows of direct foreign investment, particularly from the United States. Increased labour input is identified as another key component, followed by EU membership and structural funds. Incomes policy also figures on the list. Fiscal consolidation gets a mention, but we are warned that its contribution has not been as powerful “as some have claimed”.
This ordering of causal factors begs several questions. First, since 1989, the number of people at work in Ireland has increased by over 450,000. US subsidiaries in manufacturing and internationally traded services, including financial services, have accounted for at most 10% of this increase. Even if each of these US jobs generated one further job in the economy, that would still leave 80% of the Irish growth in employment unexplained. Hence US foreign investment was important, but the claim that it was the major factor is hard to sustain.
There is also a problem with the argument that the supply of well-qualified entrants to the labour market played a key role. To be sure, more young people graduated, more women entered the workforce and more emigrants returned home. But Ireland has never been short of labour inputs. In the 1980s a third of our emigrants were bright, English-speaking and motivated graduates. Why were there no jobs for them then, but plenty in the 1990s? Clearly, labour supply was a facilitating factor; it helped in an important way to sustain growth, but it did not ignite that growth.
An alternative view is that more people were hired after the late 1980s because business in Ireland became more profitable and confident. And fiscal policy played a central role in transforming the business environment. It began with a cross-party consensus on government spending cutbacks, which gave notice of the political will to restore order to the nation’s finances. That determination paved the way for interest rates to ease and for moderate pay deals and tax cuts. Higher consumption and business investment followed.
Another question: of the net 450,000 jobs created during the past decade, some 335,000 were in the services sector, mainly private market services – how did it happen that these jobs appeared on the scene in the short period of a decade? During the 1980s, the Irish services sector had generated fewer jobs in relation to its GNP by comparison with other OECD countries. This under-performance was related to high taxes, high labour costs, excessive regulation and anti-competitive practices. The change in fiscal policy was important in addressing these weaknesses.
Another aspect of Ireland’s transformation that is underestimated in the OECD analysis is the impact of de-regulation and competition policies. Competition in the airline industry, for instance, had a major impact on Irish tourism.
In short, the Ireland survey overestimates the role of foreign investment and labour supply, and underestimates the part played by fiscal and competition policy in the economic recovery. In a post-EMU context, fiscal policy will remain a powerful tool.
Dermot McAleese, Professor of Economics at Trinity College
University of Dublin, Ireland
A reply to the OECD Economic Survey on Ireland
Sir, you are right in asserting that the Irish economy is no longer the sick man of Europe (Observer 217/218, 1999). Whereas Ireland’s national income per head grew by just 1.8% per year for most of the 20th century, during the last six years income per head has grown by over 6% annually. Although the transformation in economic performance is relatively recent, the Irish economy is an interesting case study into the link between economic policy and growth.
Your Economic Survey of Ireland 1998-1999 illustrates how difficult it is for even the most expert economists to explain Ireland’s turnaround. One reason for the confusion is that the boom reflects a confluence of several factors and to isolate the influence of any subset of them can be problematic. Another problem is the different time lags between policy and effect: changes in education policy, for example, will take years to feed through, whereas cuts in taxes will be felt more quickly.
The OECD’s view is that the most important causal influence has been inflows of direct foreign investment, particularly from the United States. Increased labour input is identified as another key component, followed by EU membership and structural funds. Incomes policy also figures on the list. Fiscal consolidation gets a mention, but we are warned that its contribution has not been as powerful “as some have claimed”.
This ordering of causal factors begs several questions. First, since 1989, the number of people at work in Ireland has increased by over 450,000. US subsidiaries in manufacturing and internationally traded services, including financial services, have accounted for at most 10% of this increase. Even if each of these US jobs generated one further job in the economy, that would still leave 80% of the Irish growth in employment unexplained. Hence US foreign investment was important, but the claim that it was the major factor is hard to sustain.
There is also a problem with the argument that the supply of well-qualified entrants to the labour market played a key role. To be sure, more young people graduated, more women entered the workforce and more emigrants returned home. But Ireland has never been short of labour inputs. In the 1980s a third of our emigrants were bright, English-speaking and motivated graduates. Why were there no jobs for them then, but plenty in the 1990s? Clearly, labour supply was a facilitating factor; it helped in an important way to sustain growth, but it did not ignite that growth.
An alternative view is that more people were hired after the late 1980s because business in Ireland became more profitable and confident. And fiscal policy played a central role in transforming the business environment. It began with a cross-party consensus on government spending cutbacks, which gave notice of the political will to restore order to the nation’s finances. That determination paved the way for interest rates to ease and for moderate pay deals and tax cuts. Higher consumption and business investment followed.
Another question: of the net 450,000 jobs created during the past decade, some 335,000 were in the services sector, mainly private market services – how did it happen that these jobs appeared on the scene in the short period of a decade? During the 1980s, the Irish services sector had generated fewer jobs in relation to its GNP by comparison with other OECD countries. This under-performance was related to high taxes, high labour costs, excessive regulation and anti-competitive practices. The change in fiscal policy was important in addressing these weaknesses.
Another aspect of Ireland’s transformation that is underestimated in the OECD analysis is the impact of de-regulation and competition policies. Competition in the airline industry, for instance, had a major impact on Irish tourism.
In short, the Ireland survey overestimates the role of foreign investment and labour supply, and underestimates the part played by fiscal and competition policy in the economic recovery. In a post-EMU context, fiscal policy will remain a powerful tool.
Dermot McAleese, Professor of Economics at Trinity College
University of Dublin, Ireland
sexta-feira, 6 de junho de 2008
Taxa natural de juros
A taxa natural de juros esta de volta ao centro do debate sobre política monetária, mas nem por isto a definição do quem vem a ser esta taxa é clara. O texto abaixo, do Federal Reserv Bank de São Francisco, é uma ótima introdução a este importante conceito.
A key question for monetary policymakers, as well as participants in financial markets, is: "Where are interest rates headed?" In the long run, economists assume that nominal interest rates will tend toward some equilibrium, or "natural," real rate of interest plus an adjustment for expected long-run inflation.
Unfortunately, the "natural" real rate of interest is not observable, so it must be estimated. Monetary policymakers are interested in estimating it because real rates above or below it would tend to depress or stimulate economic growth; financial market participants are interested because it would be helpful in forecasting short-term interest rates many years into the future in order to calculate the value and, therefore, the yields of long-term government and private bonds. This Economic Letter describes factors that influence the natural rate of interest and discusses different ways economists try to measure it.
Defining the natural rate of interest
In thinking about the natural rate of interest, economists generally focus on real interest rates. They believe that movements in those rates, more so than in nominal rates, influence businesses' decisions about investment spending and consumers' decisions about purchases of durable goods, like refrigerators and cars, and new housing, and, therefore, economic growth.
Over 100 years ago, Wicksell defined the natural rate this way:
There is a certain rate of interest on loans which is neutral in respect to commodity prices, and tends neither to raise nor to lower them. (1936 translation from 1898 text, p.102.)
Since then, various definitions of the natural rate of interest have appeared in the economics literature. In this Letter, the natural rate is defined to be the real fed funds rate consistent with real GDP equaling its potential level (potential GDP) in the absence of transitory shocks to demand. Potential GDP, in turn, is defined to be the level of output consistent with stable price inflation, absent transitory shocks to supply. Thus, the natural rate of interest is the real fed funds rate consistent with stable inflation absent shocks to demand and supply.
This definition of the natural rate takes a "long-run" perspective in that it refers to the level expected to prevail in, say, the next five to ten years, after any existing business cycle "booms" and "busts" underway have played out. For example, the U.S. economy is still at a relatively early part of its recovery from the 2001 recession, so the natural rate refers not to the real funds rate expected over the next year or two, but rather to the rate that is expected to prevail once the recovery is complete and the economy is expanding at its potential growth rate.
Para ler o texto completo, de autoria do John C. Williams, Senior Research Advisor: The Natural Rate of Interest (2003-32, 10/31/2003)
A key question for monetary policymakers, as well as participants in financial markets, is: "Where are interest rates headed?" In the long run, economists assume that nominal interest rates will tend toward some equilibrium, or "natural," real rate of interest plus an adjustment for expected long-run inflation.
Unfortunately, the "natural" real rate of interest is not observable, so it must be estimated. Monetary policymakers are interested in estimating it because real rates above or below it would tend to depress or stimulate economic growth; financial market participants are interested because it would be helpful in forecasting short-term interest rates many years into the future in order to calculate the value and, therefore, the yields of long-term government and private bonds. This Economic Letter describes factors that influence the natural rate of interest and discusses different ways economists try to measure it.
Defining the natural rate of interest
In thinking about the natural rate of interest, economists generally focus on real interest rates. They believe that movements in those rates, more so than in nominal rates, influence businesses' decisions about investment spending and consumers' decisions about purchases of durable goods, like refrigerators and cars, and new housing, and, therefore, economic growth.
Over 100 years ago, Wicksell defined the natural rate this way:
There is a certain rate of interest on loans which is neutral in respect to commodity prices, and tends neither to raise nor to lower them. (1936 translation from 1898 text, p.102.)
Since then, various definitions of the natural rate of interest have appeared in the economics literature. In this Letter, the natural rate is defined to be the real fed funds rate consistent with real GDP equaling its potential level (potential GDP) in the absence of transitory shocks to demand. Potential GDP, in turn, is defined to be the level of output consistent with stable price inflation, absent transitory shocks to supply. Thus, the natural rate of interest is the real fed funds rate consistent with stable inflation absent shocks to demand and supply.
This definition of the natural rate takes a "long-run" perspective in that it refers to the level expected to prevail in, say, the next five to ten years, after any existing business cycle "booms" and "busts" underway have played out. For example, the U.S. economy is still at a relatively early part of its recovery from the 2001 recession, so the natural rate refers not to the real funds rate expected over the next year or two, but rather to the rate that is expected to prevail once the recovery is complete and the economy is expanding at its potential growth rate.
Para ler o texto completo, de autoria do John C. Williams, Senior Research Advisor: The Natural Rate of Interest (2003-32, 10/31/2003)
quinta-feira, 5 de junho de 2008
Suicide of a Moderate Dictator
This is a day when truths will out, perhaps;
leak from the dangling telephone earphones
sapping the festooned switchboards' strength;
fall from the windows, blow from off the sills,
—the vague, slight unremarkable contents
of emptying ash-trays; rub off on our fingers
like ink from the un-proof-read newspapers,
crocking the way the unfocused photographs
of crooked faces do that soil our coats,
our tropical-wight coats, like slapped-at moths.
Today's a day when those who work
are idling. Those who played must work
and hurry, too, to get it downe,
with little dignity or none.
The newspapers are sold; the kiosk shutters
crash down. But anyway, in the night
the headlines wrote themselves, see, on the streets
and sidewalks everywhere; a sediment's splashed
even to the first floors of apartment houses.
This is a day that's beautiful as well,
warm and clear. At seven o'clock I saw
the dogs being walked along the famous beach
as usual, in a shiny gray-green dawn,
leaving their paw prints draining in the wet.
The line of breakers was steady and the pinkish,
segmented rainbow steadily hung above it.
At eight, two little boys were flying kites.
Elizabeth Bishop
leak from the dangling telephone earphones
sapping the festooned switchboards' strength;
fall from the windows, blow from off the sills,
—the vague, slight unremarkable contents
of emptying ash-trays; rub off on our fingers
like ink from the un-proof-read newspapers,
crocking the way the unfocused photographs
of crooked faces do that soil our coats,
our tropical-wight coats, like slapped-at moths.
Today's a day when those who work
are idling. Those who played must work
and hurry, too, to get it downe,
with little dignity or none.
The newspapers are sold; the kiosk shutters
crash down. But anyway, in the night
the headlines wrote themselves, see, on the streets
and sidewalks everywhere; a sediment's splashed
even to the first floors of apartment houses.
This is a day that's beautiful as well,
warm and clear. At seven o'clock I saw
the dogs being walked along the famous beach
as usual, in a shiny gray-green dawn,
leaving their paw prints draining in the wet.
The line of breakers was steady and the pinkish,
segmented rainbow steadily hung above it.
At eight, two little boys were flying kites.
Elizabeth Bishop
quarta-feira, 4 de junho de 2008
Prefeita e teóloga
Interessante artigo, na última edição da revista America, sobre a experiência de uma Professora Titular de Teologia, Georgia Masters Keightley, que deixou o emprego de professora para assumir o cargo de Prefeita de uma pequena cidade americana e tentar colocar em prática a doutrina social católica.
"S everal years ago, I unexpectedly found myself serving as the elected mayor of a small, economically depressed town in rural Nebraska. Previously I had been a tenured theology professor at a Catholic women’s college in the East. I had returned to my Nebraska hometown the summer after completing a sabbatical leave to finish up some family business. Once there, the idea of being able to do full-time research and writing on the role of the laity in the church grew irresistible, and I decided to resign my teaching position and stay.
My hometown was no longer the thriving farming and ranching community it had been when I was growing up. While the farms and ranches had grown much larger, there were far fewer families operating them. The arrival of a Wal-Mart 20 miles away had the usual dampening effect on local business. I was dismayed to discover that all the social ills of the big city could be found here in small-town America as well: widespread drug and alcohol abuse, limited educational opportunities, few new jobs and high unemployment. Social services were stressed, and not a few residents experienced grinding poverty. Later, during my door-to-door campaigning, I came across two homes that “borrowed” electricity from their neighbors, thanks to a very long orange extension cord.
After many lengthy conversations and strategy sessions with friends about what might be done to stem the town’s decline, I agreed, at their urging and with some reluctance, to run for mayor. But this decision was, I must confess, also prompted by a set of interests and concerns I had as a teacher and lay theologian. Let me explain.
Throughout my career, I had regularly taught courses in Catholic social ethics and was gratified to find students altruistic and enthusiastic about the idea that society could be transformed by their decisions and actions. Yet the more I taught these courses, the more I wanted to know how to translate this body of teaching into practical, everyday decisions and actions. What could educated Catholic professionals do to make the social, economic and political networks of their communities more fair and just, more supportive of the common good? How does one live out a preferential option for the poor in one’s professional life? How does the principle of solidarity apply to one’s daily use of money?
While I could remind students of the Gospel charge to do hands-on charity and service, such actions do not really address the structural causes of injustice, which, as Paul VI taught, must be a primary focus of the Catholic witness in our time. The pope described the need for Catholics to bring to conversion “the activities in which they engage, and the lives and concrete milieu which are theirs.” The question was how."
Para ler o artigo completo :A Theologian in Town Hall
"S everal years ago, I unexpectedly found myself serving as the elected mayor of a small, economically depressed town in rural Nebraska. Previously I had been a tenured theology professor at a Catholic women’s college in the East. I had returned to my Nebraska hometown the summer after completing a sabbatical leave to finish up some family business. Once there, the idea of being able to do full-time research and writing on the role of the laity in the church grew irresistible, and I decided to resign my teaching position and stay.
My hometown was no longer the thriving farming and ranching community it had been when I was growing up. While the farms and ranches had grown much larger, there were far fewer families operating them. The arrival of a Wal-Mart 20 miles away had the usual dampening effect on local business. I was dismayed to discover that all the social ills of the big city could be found here in small-town America as well: widespread drug and alcohol abuse, limited educational opportunities, few new jobs and high unemployment. Social services were stressed, and not a few residents experienced grinding poverty. Later, during my door-to-door campaigning, I came across two homes that “borrowed” electricity from their neighbors, thanks to a very long orange extension cord.
After many lengthy conversations and strategy sessions with friends about what might be done to stem the town’s decline, I agreed, at their urging and with some reluctance, to run for mayor. But this decision was, I must confess, also prompted by a set of interests and concerns I had as a teacher and lay theologian. Let me explain.
Throughout my career, I had regularly taught courses in Catholic social ethics and was gratified to find students altruistic and enthusiastic about the idea that society could be transformed by their decisions and actions. Yet the more I taught these courses, the more I wanted to know how to translate this body of teaching into practical, everyday decisions and actions. What could educated Catholic professionals do to make the social, economic and political networks of their communities more fair and just, more supportive of the common good? How does one live out a preferential option for the poor in one’s professional life? How does the principle of solidarity apply to one’s daily use of money?
While I could remind students of the Gospel charge to do hands-on charity and service, such actions do not really address the structural causes of injustice, which, as Paul VI taught, must be a primary focus of the Catholic witness in our time. The pope described the need for Catholics to bring to conversion “the activities in which they engage, and the lives and concrete milieu which are theirs.” The question was how."
Para ler o artigo completo :A Theologian in Town Hall
terça-feira, 3 de junho de 2008
Primeira Lei dos Economistas: Para cada economista sempre existe um economista igual e oposto.
Segunda Lei dos Economistas: Eles estão ambos errados.
*
Para cada conjunto finito de respostas sempre existirá um conjunto infinito de novos modelos.
*
Um economista é alguém que sabe 100 modos de se fazer amor, mas não conhece nenhuma mulher/homem.
*
Um economista (de alguma universidade) devagar estava andando e foi a uma pizzaria. O balconista perguntou se queria que cortasse a pizza em oito ou em seis pedaços. "Estou com bastante fome. Seria melhor cortar em oito pedaços."
*
No primeiro dia, Deus criou o sol, e como contrapartida, criou o queimado do sol. No segundo dia criou o sexo, e como contrapartida, o casamento. No terceiro dia, criou um economista. Depois de pensar muito em qual seria a contrapartida apropriada, Deus criou um segundo economista. (Cheer, 1993)
*
Um departamento de medicina anunciou que pararia de usar ratos em seus experimentos para usar economistas no lugar. Eles elencaram as razões da mudança:
1. Os assistentes tornavam-se muito envolvidos emocionalmente com os ratos, interferindo na pesquisa. Com os economistas não haveria risco de estabelecer tal ligação;
2. Economistas são mais baratos para cuidar e não haveria qualquer objeção da Sociedade Protetora dos Animais;
3. Existem coisas que nem os ratos fariam.
Além disto, é difícil extrapolar os resultados dos testes para seres humanos, quando se pesquisam os ratos.
*
Dizem que Cristóvão Colombo foi o primeiro economista. Quando viajou para a América, ele não sabia aonde estava indo. Quando chegou não sabia onde estava. E tudo isto foi feito com verbas do governo.
*
O professor perguntou a Joãozinho o que seu pai fazia. "Ele é médico", "Muito bem", exclamou o professor. Então perguntou a Mariazinha qual a profissão de seu pai, e ela respondeu "Carteiro, professor.", "Muito bem, exclamou mais uma vez o professor. Por último perguntou a Tiãozinho, "O que seu pai faz ?" Tiãozinho estufou o peito e respondeu: "Meu pai toca piano em um bordéu." Assustado com a resposta de Tiãozinho, o professor foi falar com seu pai, que explicou: "Professor, na verdade eu sou um economista. Como você queria que eu explicasse isto para uma criança de sete anos ?"
*
Dois economistas estavam andando pela rua. Um deles vê uma nota de $ 100,00 no chão e fala para o outro. "Claro que não é uma nota", responde o outro economista, "Se fosse uma nota alguém já teria pego.
*
Na escola, a professora conversava com Aninha. "Qual a profissão de sua mãe ?", perguntou, "Professora de Química.", respondeu Aninha. "Ah, que bom!", exclamou a professora. "e teu pai, o que ele faz ?" "Nada. Ele é um economista."
Segunda Lei dos Economistas: Eles estão ambos errados.
*
Para cada conjunto finito de respostas sempre existirá um conjunto infinito de novos modelos.
*
Um economista é alguém que sabe 100 modos de se fazer amor, mas não conhece nenhuma mulher/homem.
*
Um economista (de alguma universidade) devagar estava andando e foi a uma pizzaria. O balconista perguntou se queria que cortasse a pizza em oito ou em seis pedaços. "Estou com bastante fome. Seria melhor cortar em oito pedaços."
*
No primeiro dia, Deus criou o sol, e como contrapartida, criou o queimado do sol. No segundo dia criou o sexo, e como contrapartida, o casamento. No terceiro dia, criou um economista. Depois de pensar muito em qual seria a contrapartida apropriada, Deus criou um segundo economista. (Cheer, 1993)
*
Um departamento de medicina anunciou que pararia de usar ratos em seus experimentos para usar economistas no lugar. Eles elencaram as razões da mudança:
1. Os assistentes tornavam-se muito envolvidos emocionalmente com os ratos, interferindo na pesquisa. Com os economistas não haveria risco de estabelecer tal ligação;
2. Economistas são mais baratos para cuidar e não haveria qualquer objeção da Sociedade Protetora dos Animais;
3. Existem coisas que nem os ratos fariam.
Além disto, é difícil extrapolar os resultados dos testes para seres humanos, quando se pesquisam os ratos.
*
Dizem que Cristóvão Colombo foi o primeiro economista. Quando viajou para a América, ele não sabia aonde estava indo. Quando chegou não sabia onde estava. E tudo isto foi feito com verbas do governo.
*
O professor perguntou a Joãozinho o que seu pai fazia. "Ele é médico", "Muito bem", exclamou o professor. Então perguntou a Mariazinha qual a profissão de seu pai, e ela respondeu "Carteiro, professor.", "Muito bem, exclamou mais uma vez o professor. Por último perguntou a Tiãozinho, "O que seu pai faz ?" Tiãozinho estufou o peito e respondeu: "Meu pai toca piano em um bordéu." Assustado com a resposta de Tiãozinho, o professor foi falar com seu pai, que explicou: "Professor, na verdade eu sou um economista. Como você queria que eu explicasse isto para uma criança de sete anos ?"
*
Dois economistas estavam andando pela rua. Um deles vê uma nota de $ 100,00 no chão e fala para o outro. "Claro que não é uma nota", responde o outro economista, "Se fosse uma nota alguém já teria pego.
*
Na escola, a professora conversava com Aninha. "Qual a profissão de sua mãe ?", perguntou, "Professora de Química.", respondeu Aninha. "Ah, que bom!", exclamou a professora. "e teu pai, o que ele faz ?" "Nada. Ele é um economista."
segunda-feira, 2 de junho de 2008
Estratégias...
A paixão do Bresser Pereira pelo Brasil é admirável e explica a sua recente campanha contra a alta dos juros. Ele, naturalmente, tem razão o juro é alto, mas resta saber o que fazer para derrubá-lo?
No artigo da Folha, desta segunda-feira, ele foi muito feliz em defender a necessidade de uma estratégia para resolver este problema. Ela incluiria “aumento temporário do ajuste fiscal e diminuição permanente do nível da taxa de juros, e, de outro, depreciação cambial permanente por meio de juros menos atrativos aos capitais externos, da neutralização da doença holandesa e de controles também temporários de entradas de capital até a taxa de câmbio atingir o nível de equilíbrio”. É uma longa lista e, como ele mesmo, reconhece ainda não existe uma coalização com força suficiente para transformá-la em agenda nacional.
A lista é interessante, mas permita-me fazer algumas correções. O ajuste fiscal, se mantido, por um período razoável de tempo, poderá ter o necessário efeito sobre a formação de expectativas dos agentes econômicos o que levaria a queda da taxa de juros. Algo semelhante ocorreu na Irlanda, mas é bom frisar: requer tempo. Já a doença holandesa ainda não parece ser uma doença e assemelha-se cada vez mais ao resultado da própria experiência que lhe deu este nome. Controle de capitais na entrada não me parece ser necessário se for implementado o ajuste fiscal adequado.
No artigo da Folha, desta segunda-feira, ele foi muito feliz em defender a necessidade de uma estratégia para resolver este problema. Ela incluiria “aumento temporário do ajuste fiscal e diminuição permanente do nível da taxa de juros, e, de outro, depreciação cambial permanente por meio de juros menos atrativos aos capitais externos, da neutralização da doença holandesa e de controles também temporários de entradas de capital até a taxa de câmbio atingir o nível de equilíbrio”. É uma longa lista e, como ele mesmo, reconhece ainda não existe uma coalização com força suficiente para transformá-la em agenda nacional.
A lista é interessante, mas permita-me fazer algumas correções. O ajuste fiscal, se mantido, por um período razoável de tempo, poderá ter o necessário efeito sobre a formação de expectativas dos agentes econômicos o que levaria a queda da taxa de juros. Algo semelhante ocorreu na Irlanda, mas é bom frisar: requer tempo. Já a doença holandesa ainda não parece ser uma doença e assemelha-se cada vez mais ao resultado da própria experiência que lhe deu este nome. Controle de capitais na entrada não me parece ser necessário se for implementado o ajuste fiscal adequado.
domingo, 1 de junho de 2008
Os conselheiros econômicos do Presidente
Leio na Folha que o Presidente esta ouvindo economistas fora do governo, mais precisamente o “bruxo”, “o palmeirense” e um não-economista, pagliaci. Entendo perfeitamente a escolha dos dois primeiros e surpreso com a escolha do terceiro conselheiro. Afinal pagliaci não é exatamente uma autoridade em questões econômicas: sua participação no Roda Viva é legendária pela demonstração de ignorância em questões básicas de macroeconomia.
O “bruxo” ainda carrega a mística do “milagre econômico”, que, apesar da repressão política, é, aparentemente, um período que ainda encanta alguns. Já o palmeirense, está associado ao quase-milagre do plano cruzado: um plano que ao fracassar condenou ao gueto da esquerda iletrada a produção acadêmica de uma certa escola da periferia paulistana. É verdade que o palmeirense tem brilho próprio e é um bom economista, mas...
O que podemos esperar destes conselhos? É bom lembrar que os dois são críticos empedernidos da política econômica que gerou o atual estado de bonança da economia brasileira.
O “bruxo” ainda carrega a mística do “milagre econômico”, que, apesar da repressão política, é, aparentemente, um período que ainda encanta alguns. Já o palmeirense, está associado ao quase-milagre do plano cruzado: um plano que ao fracassar condenou ao gueto da esquerda iletrada a produção acadêmica de uma certa escola da periferia paulistana. É verdade que o palmeirense tem brilho próprio e é um bom economista, mas...
O que podemos esperar destes conselhos? É bom lembrar que os dois são críticos empedernidos da política econômica que gerou o atual estado de bonança da economia brasileira.
sábado, 31 de maio de 2008
Where have all the thinkers gone?
Interessante entrevista com um famoso Cardeal belga.
Progressive Catholics might think that Belgian Cardinal Godfried Danneels, who is 75 next week, would be concerned that the Church is moving away from the ideals of Vatican II. But what really concerns him, he tells Robert Mickens, is the scarcity of intellectuals among bishops
Cardinal Godfried Danneels was taking no chances. Two weeks before celebrating his seventy-fifth birthday on 4 June, he had already sent his letter of resignation to the Vatican. "Because you never know if the Italian post is working," the cardinal tells me playfully - and knowingly. After all, he lived in Rome from 1956 to 1959 while earning a doctorate in theology at the Gregorian University. But as I laugh at his gentle dig at the Italian work ethic, the cardinal breaks in with a mischievous grin: "I am a polite man, so I wanted [the letter] to be on time." And there it is, in the very first minute of our hour-long visit: Cardinal Danneels' subtle and ironic humour or the "Danneels Code" as one of his admirers calls it.
It's Friday, 4 p.m., and I am in the old Flemish city of Mechlin (Malines in French) at the archiepiscopal residence, sitting at a table with one of the top intellectuals in the College of Cardinals. But the stately white "palace" is the only external sign to the unsuspecting visitor that Cardinal Danneels is a man of importance. It is certainly not evident in his dress or demeanour. As usual, he is wearing a simple black suit with clerical collar. The only thing that distinguishes him from a parish priest is the silver pectoral cross around his neck and the flat gold band on his right-hand ring finger. There are no priest attendants or secretaries fussing over him, no clerical entourage to announce his presence. There are only two laywomen - a receptionist and another who accompanies guests to the cardinal's study.
Cardinal Danneels is obviously well aware of the symbolism of all this. After all, before being named a bishop in 1977 he taught systematic and sacramental theology for 18 years, the last eight of those at the fabled University of Louvain. So I ask him to explain the significance of his modern-looking pectoral cross with its image of the risen Christ. "It is a risen Lord, not the dying Lord," he points out. And it is "very cheap ... something like half a euro in Rome", he says. But this is not because he lacks taste. On the contrary. Cardinal Danneels, in the best Belgium tradition, is a man of high culture and a patron of the arts, though he is not above relaxing to the Dixie sounds of New Orleans jazz. "But I like it very much because it is Christ who is rising on the Cross. It is typical Johannine," he stresses. "If you look at the Cross with the crucified Jesus it is exactly correct. But you look at what we have before the Resurrection. We are [living] after the Resurrection ... and for a long time already," he says, his voice rising slightly as if to suggest that perhaps too many people have forgotten that part.
Comments like this have earned Belgium's cardinal a reputation for being a progressive. But it is a label that he accepts only cautiously and with qualification. "I have never had the impression that I was a very ideological progressive," he says, though admits that he has been "a bit progressive". Not surprisingly he quotes his visionary predecessor, Cardinal Leo Joseph Suenens (1904-1996) and declares that he stands in "the extreme centre", for - after all - to be a "blind progressive is not very intellectual". Suenens, of course, was one of the key figures of the Second Vatican Council and the leading progressive voice in the immediate post-conciliar period. Cardinal Danneels tells me of his "great admiration" and "great affection" for his predecessor, pointing out that he had a good "instinct" for reading the signs of the times. "But," he says, exercising that qualifier, "it was another time."
It is a time that has deeply shaped Godfried Danneels. "I must say that the Second Vatican Council is very central in my life," the cardinal tells me with great seriousness. "My whole life has been the application of Vatican II, especially in liturgy, catechesis, the relationship between the Church and the world ..." His voice trails off. Then he reminds me that even before the council was convened in 1962 its teachings and ways of thinking were commonplace in Belgium. "It was not a surprise what was decided at Vatican II. All those things were known ... What was new was that the Church confirmed all that in a council," he says.
In more than 31 years as a bishop the cardinal has tried to encourage his priests and laity to "read the council" and to work together. Lay collaboration has become more and more essential with the declining number of new priests. Even though there are still more than 1,900 diocesan and religious-order priests officially listed as living in the Archdiocese of Malines-Brussels, many are already retired and the largest percentage will soon reach retirement age. Critics say that Cardinal Danneels has not attracted new priesthood candidates (only two were ordained in 2007) because he is, in a word, too progressive in a Church that is drawing more traditional men to service. This goes hand in hand with the criticism that he is overly optimistic about trends in society.
"From time to time they say that I see things as too rosy, but I think we have to give credit to the good that is happening," he says. "I have always had an immense respect for every feeling and every thought of every human being I have ever met," he tells me. Keeping an "open mind" and being "very hopeful" comes from a belief that "fundamentally the human being is a good being". He adds: "We need a therapy, but we can be healed."
Since this all sounds very much in the vein of Cardinal Suenens, I ask him what aspects of the Church of today would sadden his pre-decessor. Cardinal Danneels pauses for several seconds, obviously suspicious that the question is indirectly aimed at him. "Well," he begins, with a knowing look, "stupid progressivism." I smile at what seems to be one of those clever responses in the "Danneels Code". Cardinal Suenens would surely have been grieved as much or more by stupid conservatism, as well as by those who espouse it.
Cardinal Danneels, though he is open-minded and respectful, is distressed that there are not brighter men in the Church hierarchy. This point comes up as we speak about the Synod of Bishops. He has attended every assembly since 1980. "When I look at the synod assembly, so many good people are there with really pastoral hearts. They are good shepherds. But from time to time I think it would be good if 5 per cent of them were also thinkers, that don't lack hearts. We need among the bishops and cardinals some really intelligent people."
When I ask Cardinal Danneels if he would like to see some developments or changes from the Vatican he says, "I do not know the Vatican very well, I am here ..." This is despite the cardinal being a long-standing member of four Roman Congregations and a consultant to the Secretariat of State. However, he has publicly questioned the Vatican's intransigence on certain issues, such as denying the sacraments to divorced and remarried Catholics or speaking against the use of condoms as a means of preventing the spread of Aids. And there is also the infamous 1968 encyclical, Humanae Vitae. "It's a problem," Cardinal Danneels says when I mention the papal document. "We have concentrated the whole problem on the pill," he adds, pointing out that the encyclical has deflected people's attention from the other good things the Church has to say about marriage.
However, he accuses not only the Church as an institution, but also himself, for not having done enough for families. When asked what more he could have done, the cardinal says without hesitation that he could have "been much more positive to support and encourage" strong families rather than mostly focusing on broken families. "They feel like orphans and the Church sometimes forgets she is a mother," he pleads.
When Cardinal Danneels became Bishop of Antwerp in 1977 he wrote the first of what are now more than 50 pastoral letters, which are issued at Christmas and Easter. He speaks proudly of these pamphlets, which he says are widely read "outside the Church". He has covered a huge range; one of the latest focused on stress. But it is the first letter that seems to sum up the ideal he has tried to live. It was about the "ministry of encouragement".
Cardinal Danneels has always shunned talk about his his legacy, saying it is "better to remain humble". But he says there is a line from St Francis of Assisi that could be an epitaph for his life: "You should never let anyone leave your presence in sadness." Trying to follow these words is the only achievement the cardinal is willing to ponder. "When I am before the throne of God at the end of my life, the first thing I will say to God is, ‘Have compassion on me.' And he will probably say, ‘I have. Come in ... maybe a bit of Purgatory first ...'" The cardinal begins to laugh and finishes the thought, "‘... but it is just to get you acclimatised
Fonte: The Tablet, 31.05.08
Progressive Catholics might think that Belgian Cardinal Godfried Danneels, who is 75 next week, would be concerned that the Church is moving away from the ideals of Vatican II. But what really concerns him, he tells Robert Mickens, is the scarcity of intellectuals among bishops
Cardinal Godfried Danneels was taking no chances. Two weeks before celebrating his seventy-fifth birthday on 4 June, he had already sent his letter of resignation to the Vatican. "Because you never know if the Italian post is working," the cardinal tells me playfully - and knowingly. After all, he lived in Rome from 1956 to 1959 while earning a doctorate in theology at the Gregorian University. But as I laugh at his gentle dig at the Italian work ethic, the cardinal breaks in with a mischievous grin: "I am a polite man, so I wanted [the letter] to be on time." And there it is, in the very first minute of our hour-long visit: Cardinal Danneels' subtle and ironic humour or the "Danneels Code" as one of his admirers calls it.
It's Friday, 4 p.m., and I am in the old Flemish city of Mechlin (Malines in French) at the archiepiscopal residence, sitting at a table with one of the top intellectuals in the College of Cardinals. But the stately white "palace" is the only external sign to the unsuspecting visitor that Cardinal Danneels is a man of importance. It is certainly not evident in his dress or demeanour. As usual, he is wearing a simple black suit with clerical collar. The only thing that distinguishes him from a parish priest is the silver pectoral cross around his neck and the flat gold band on his right-hand ring finger. There are no priest attendants or secretaries fussing over him, no clerical entourage to announce his presence. There are only two laywomen - a receptionist and another who accompanies guests to the cardinal's study.
Cardinal Danneels is obviously well aware of the symbolism of all this. After all, before being named a bishop in 1977 he taught systematic and sacramental theology for 18 years, the last eight of those at the fabled University of Louvain. So I ask him to explain the significance of his modern-looking pectoral cross with its image of the risen Christ. "It is a risen Lord, not the dying Lord," he points out. And it is "very cheap ... something like half a euro in Rome", he says. But this is not because he lacks taste. On the contrary. Cardinal Danneels, in the best Belgium tradition, is a man of high culture and a patron of the arts, though he is not above relaxing to the Dixie sounds of New Orleans jazz. "But I like it very much because it is Christ who is rising on the Cross. It is typical Johannine," he stresses. "If you look at the Cross with the crucified Jesus it is exactly correct. But you look at what we have before the Resurrection. We are [living] after the Resurrection ... and for a long time already," he says, his voice rising slightly as if to suggest that perhaps too many people have forgotten that part.
Comments like this have earned Belgium's cardinal a reputation for being a progressive. But it is a label that he accepts only cautiously and with qualification. "I have never had the impression that I was a very ideological progressive," he says, though admits that he has been "a bit progressive". Not surprisingly he quotes his visionary predecessor, Cardinal Leo Joseph Suenens (1904-1996) and declares that he stands in "the extreme centre", for - after all - to be a "blind progressive is not very intellectual". Suenens, of course, was one of the key figures of the Second Vatican Council and the leading progressive voice in the immediate post-conciliar period. Cardinal Danneels tells me of his "great admiration" and "great affection" for his predecessor, pointing out that he had a good "instinct" for reading the signs of the times. "But," he says, exercising that qualifier, "it was another time."
It is a time that has deeply shaped Godfried Danneels. "I must say that the Second Vatican Council is very central in my life," the cardinal tells me with great seriousness. "My whole life has been the application of Vatican II, especially in liturgy, catechesis, the relationship between the Church and the world ..." His voice trails off. Then he reminds me that even before the council was convened in 1962 its teachings and ways of thinking were commonplace in Belgium. "It was not a surprise what was decided at Vatican II. All those things were known ... What was new was that the Church confirmed all that in a council," he says.
In more than 31 years as a bishop the cardinal has tried to encourage his priests and laity to "read the council" and to work together. Lay collaboration has become more and more essential with the declining number of new priests. Even though there are still more than 1,900 diocesan and religious-order priests officially listed as living in the Archdiocese of Malines-Brussels, many are already retired and the largest percentage will soon reach retirement age. Critics say that Cardinal Danneels has not attracted new priesthood candidates (only two were ordained in 2007) because he is, in a word, too progressive in a Church that is drawing more traditional men to service. This goes hand in hand with the criticism that he is overly optimistic about trends in society.
"From time to time they say that I see things as too rosy, but I think we have to give credit to the good that is happening," he says. "I have always had an immense respect for every feeling and every thought of every human being I have ever met," he tells me. Keeping an "open mind" and being "very hopeful" comes from a belief that "fundamentally the human being is a good being". He adds: "We need a therapy, but we can be healed."
Since this all sounds very much in the vein of Cardinal Suenens, I ask him what aspects of the Church of today would sadden his pre-decessor. Cardinal Danneels pauses for several seconds, obviously suspicious that the question is indirectly aimed at him. "Well," he begins, with a knowing look, "stupid progressivism." I smile at what seems to be one of those clever responses in the "Danneels Code". Cardinal Suenens would surely have been grieved as much or more by stupid conservatism, as well as by those who espouse it.
Cardinal Danneels, though he is open-minded and respectful, is distressed that there are not brighter men in the Church hierarchy. This point comes up as we speak about the Synod of Bishops. He has attended every assembly since 1980. "When I look at the synod assembly, so many good people are there with really pastoral hearts. They are good shepherds. But from time to time I think it would be good if 5 per cent of them were also thinkers, that don't lack hearts. We need among the bishops and cardinals some really intelligent people."
When I ask Cardinal Danneels if he would like to see some developments or changes from the Vatican he says, "I do not know the Vatican very well, I am here ..." This is despite the cardinal being a long-standing member of four Roman Congregations and a consultant to the Secretariat of State. However, he has publicly questioned the Vatican's intransigence on certain issues, such as denying the sacraments to divorced and remarried Catholics or speaking against the use of condoms as a means of preventing the spread of Aids. And there is also the infamous 1968 encyclical, Humanae Vitae. "It's a problem," Cardinal Danneels says when I mention the papal document. "We have concentrated the whole problem on the pill," he adds, pointing out that the encyclical has deflected people's attention from the other good things the Church has to say about marriage.
However, he accuses not only the Church as an institution, but also himself, for not having done enough for families. When asked what more he could have done, the cardinal says without hesitation that he could have "been much more positive to support and encourage" strong families rather than mostly focusing on broken families. "They feel like orphans and the Church sometimes forgets she is a mother," he pleads.
When Cardinal Danneels became Bishop of Antwerp in 1977 he wrote the first of what are now more than 50 pastoral letters, which are issued at Christmas and Easter. He speaks proudly of these pamphlets, which he says are widely read "outside the Church". He has covered a huge range; one of the latest focused on stress. But it is the first letter that seems to sum up the ideal he has tried to live. It was about the "ministry of encouragement".
Cardinal Danneels has always shunned talk about his his legacy, saying it is "better to remain humble". But he says there is a line from St Francis of Assisi that could be an epitaph for his life: "You should never let anyone leave your presence in sadness." Trying to follow these words is the only achievement the cardinal is willing to ponder. "When I am before the throne of God at the end of my life, the first thing I will say to God is, ‘Have compassion on me.' And he will probably say, ‘I have. Come in ... maybe a bit of Purgatory first ...'" The cardinal begins to laugh and finishes the thought, "‘... but it is just to get you acclimatised
Fonte: The Tablet, 31.05.08
sexta-feira, 30 de maio de 2008
Fagundes e a distribuição de renda
Voltando para casa ontem a noite; observando a fila de carros , os canhões de luzes – do tipo que o Comissario Gordon usava para chamar o Batman - as arvores finas como pernas de saracuras, a nova ponte estaida, o vento frio, compondo o cenário perfeito para o gosto, não raro duvidoso, dos convidados para a inauguração do mais novo símbolo do novos ricos paulistanos; pensei na última grande declaração de Fagundes. Não, estou falando do grande ator, mas de um ator menor, que disfarçado, bate ponto na nossa Las Vegas.
Ah! mas você cara leitor, talvez, não conheça o Fagundes. Permita-me refrescar sua memória, ou, para os mais jovens, apresentá-lo:”Todos os momentos de sua existência são dedicados a enaltecer seu chefinho – para o desespero desse último. Ele, para Fagundes, será sempre o primeiro e único, a razão de sua existência”. Ele é uma das mais divertidas criações do Laerte.
Pois é, ..., segundo leio nos jornais para ele : "Há uma mobilidade social brasileira inexistente na maioria dos países. Na maioria, o que há é concentração de renda. Aqui, não há concentração. “. É esta ausência de concentração de renda, que explica o belo cenário ontem na marginal do rio pinheiros, uma demonstração, se ainda necessário, da mais perfeita distribuição de renda.
Ah! mas você cara leitor, talvez, não conheça o Fagundes. Permita-me refrescar sua memória, ou, para os mais jovens, apresentá-lo:”Todos os momentos de sua existência são dedicados a enaltecer seu chefinho – para o desespero desse último. Ele, para Fagundes, será sempre o primeiro e único, a razão de sua existência”. Ele é uma das mais divertidas criações do Laerte.
Pois é, ..., segundo leio nos jornais para ele : "Há uma mobilidade social brasileira inexistente na maioria dos países. Na maioria, o que há é concentração de renda. Aqui, não há concentração. “. É esta ausência de concentração de renda, que explica o belo cenário ontem na marginal do rio pinheiros, uma demonstração, se ainda necessário, da mais perfeita distribuição de renda.
quinta-feira, 29 de maio de 2008
The snow man
One must have a mind of winter
To regard the frost and the boughs
Of the pine-trees crusted with snow;
And have been cold a long time
To behold the junipers shagged with ice,
The spruces rough in the distant glitter
Of the January sun; and not to think
Of any misery in the sound of the wind,
In the sound of a few leaves,
Which is the sound of the land
Full of the same wind
That is blowing in the same bare place
For the listener, who listens in the snow,
And, nothing himself, beholds
Nothing that is not there and the nothing that is.
Wallace Stevens
To regard the frost and the boughs
Of the pine-trees crusted with snow;
And have been cold a long time
To behold the junipers shagged with ice,
The spruces rough in the distant glitter
Of the January sun; and not to think
Of any misery in the sound of the wind,
In the sound of a few leaves,
Which is the sound of the land
Full of the same wind
That is blowing in the same bare place
For the listener, who listens in the snow,
And, nothing himself, beholds
Nothing that is not there and the nothing that is.
Wallace Stevens
quarta-feira, 28 de maio de 2008
Lições da crise financeira de 2007
Abaixo o abstract da nova versão de um artigo do Buiter sobre a crise financeira de 2007. Como ja mencionado neste blog, ele é um dos melhores macroeconomistas, ainda, em atividade e sempre vale a pena ler os seus trabalhos.
Abstract
The paper studies the causes of the current financial crisis and on the policy responses by central banks and regulators. It also considers proposals for the prevention or mitigation of future crises.
The crisis is the product of a ‘perfect storm’ bringing together a number of microeconomic and macroeconomic pathologies. Among the microeconomic systemic failures were: wanton securitisation, fundamental flaws in the rating agencies’ business model, the procyclical behaviour of leverage in much of the financial system and of the Basel capital adequacy requirements, privately rational but socially inefficient disintermediation, and competitive international de-regulation. Reduced incentives for collecting and disseminating information about counterparty risk were a pervasive feature of the new financial world of securitisation and off-balance sheet vehicles. So was lack of transparency about who owned what and about who owed what and to whom. In many ways, the crisis can be seen as a failure of the transactions-oriented model of financial capitalism favoured in the US and the UK. Proximate local drivers of the specific way in which these problems manifested themselves were regulatory and supervisory failure in the US home loan market.
Among the macroeconomic pathologies that contributed to the crisis were, first, excessive global liquidity creation by key central banks and, second, an ex-ante global saving glut, brought about by the entry of a number of high-saving countries (notably China) into the global economy and by the global redistribution of wealth and income towards commodity exporters that also had, at least in the short run, high propensities to save. Very low risk-free long-term real interest rates and unprecedently low credit risk spreads of all kinds together with the ‘great moderation’ – low and stable inflation and stable global GDP growth – prompted an increasingly frantic ‘search for yield’.
In the UK, failures of the Tripartite financial stability arrangement between the Treasury, the Bank of England and the FSA, weaknesses in the Bank of England’s liquidity management, regulatory failure of the FSA, an inadequate deposit insurance arrangement and deficient insolvency laws for the banking sector contributed to the financial disarray and the failure of a medium-sized home-loan bank, Northern Rock. In the US, the balkanised and incoherent structure of regulation of financial institutions and financial markets, even at the Federal level, meant that too many regulators are involved but none is ever in charge or responsible.
Despite this, since the excesses were confined mainly to the financial sector and, in the US and some European countries, the household sector, it should have been possible to limit the spillovers over from the crisis beyond the financial sector and the housing sector without macroeconomic heroics. Measures directly targeted at the liquidity crunch should have been sufficient. The macroeconomic response of the Fed to the crisis - 325 basis point worth of cuts between September 2007 and May 2008 and a 75 basis point cut in the discount window penalty – therefore seem excessive and create doubt about the Fed’s commitment to price stability.The liquidity-enhancing policies of the Fed, and its bailout of the investment bank Bear Stearns, were effective in dealing with the immediate crisis. They also were, quite unnecessarily, structured so as to maximise moral hazard by distorting private incentives in favour of excessively risky future borrowing and lending. The cuts in the discount rate penalty, the extraordinary arrangements for pricing the collateral offered to the Fed by the primary dealers through the TSLF and the PDCF, the proposals for bringing forward the payment of interest on bank reserves, the terms of the Bear Stearns bail out and the ‘Greenspan-Bernanke put’ rate cut on January 21/22 2008, 75 bps at an unscheduled meeting and out of normal hours, are most easily rationalised as excess sensitivity of the Fed to Wall Street concerns, reflecting (cognitive) regulatory capture of the Fed by Wall Street.
The macroeconomic stability records of the Bank of England and of the ECB have been superior to those of the Fed. After climbing a quite steep liquidity learning curve in the early months of the crisis, the Bank of England is now performing its lender of last resort and market maker of last resort roles more effectively. It would be desirable to have the information in the public domain that is required to determine whether the ECB (through the Eurosystem) is pricing illiquid collateral appropriately. There is reason for concern that the ECB may be accepting collateral in repos and at its discount window at inflated valuations, thus joining the Fed in boosting future moral hazard through the present encouragement of adverse selection.
The Fed, unlike the ECB and the Bank of England, is also a banking sector regulator and supervisor. This gives it an informational advantage. The downside to the Fed’s position is the risk of regulatory capture. I believe that what I call ‘cognitive regulatory capture’ of the Fed by Wall Street has occurred during the past two decades. The net result is that both as regards macroeconomic stability and as regards future financial stability, the Fed has performed worse during this crisis than the ECB and the Bank of England.
Future regulation will have to be base on size and leverage of institutions. It will have to be universal (applying to all leveraged institutions above a certain size), uniform, countercyclical and global.
Financial crises will always be with us.
Para ler o artigo: here
Abstract
The paper studies the causes of the current financial crisis and on the policy responses by central banks and regulators. It also considers proposals for the prevention or mitigation of future crises.
The crisis is the product of a ‘perfect storm’ bringing together a number of microeconomic and macroeconomic pathologies. Among the microeconomic systemic failures were: wanton securitisation, fundamental flaws in the rating agencies’ business model, the procyclical behaviour of leverage in much of the financial system and of the Basel capital adequacy requirements, privately rational but socially inefficient disintermediation, and competitive international de-regulation. Reduced incentives for collecting and disseminating information about counterparty risk were a pervasive feature of the new financial world of securitisation and off-balance sheet vehicles. So was lack of transparency about who owned what and about who owed what and to whom. In many ways, the crisis can be seen as a failure of the transactions-oriented model of financial capitalism favoured in the US and the UK. Proximate local drivers of the specific way in which these problems manifested themselves were regulatory and supervisory failure in the US home loan market.
Among the macroeconomic pathologies that contributed to the crisis were, first, excessive global liquidity creation by key central banks and, second, an ex-ante global saving glut, brought about by the entry of a number of high-saving countries (notably China) into the global economy and by the global redistribution of wealth and income towards commodity exporters that also had, at least in the short run, high propensities to save. Very low risk-free long-term real interest rates and unprecedently low credit risk spreads of all kinds together with the ‘great moderation’ – low and stable inflation and stable global GDP growth – prompted an increasingly frantic ‘search for yield’.
In the UK, failures of the Tripartite financial stability arrangement between the Treasury, the Bank of England and the FSA, weaknesses in the Bank of England’s liquidity management, regulatory failure of the FSA, an inadequate deposit insurance arrangement and deficient insolvency laws for the banking sector contributed to the financial disarray and the failure of a medium-sized home-loan bank, Northern Rock. In the US, the balkanised and incoherent structure of regulation of financial institutions and financial markets, even at the Federal level, meant that too many regulators are involved but none is ever in charge or responsible.
Despite this, since the excesses were confined mainly to the financial sector and, in the US and some European countries, the household sector, it should have been possible to limit the spillovers over from the crisis beyond the financial sector and the housing sector without macroeconomic heroics. Measures directly targeted at the liquidity crunch should have been sufficient. The macroeconomic response of the Fed to the crisis - 325 basis point worth of cuts between September 2007 and May 2008 and a 75 basis point cut in the discount window penalty – therefore seem excessive and create doubt about the Fed’s commitment to price stability.The liquidity-enhancing policies of the Fed, and its bailout of the investment bank Bear Stearns, were effective in dealing with the immediate crisis. They also were, quite unnecessarily, structured so as to maximise moral hazard by distorting private incentives in favour of excessively risky future borrowing and lending. The cuts in the discount rate penalty, the extraordinary arrangements for pricing the collateral offered to the Fed by the primary dealers through the TSLF and the PDCF, the proposals for bringing forward the payment of interest on bank reserves, the terms of the Bear Stearns bail out and the ‘Greenspan-Bernanke put’ rate cut on January 21/22 2008, 75 bps at an unscheduled meeting and out of normal hours, are most easily rationalised as excess sensitivity of the Fed to Wall Street concerns, reflecting (cognitive) regulatory capture of the Fed by Wall Street.
The macroeconomic stability records of the Bank of England and of the ECB have been superior to those of the Fed. After climbing a quite steep liquidity learning curve in the early months of the crisis, the Bank of England is now performing its lender of last resort and market maker of last resort roles more effectively. It would be desirable to have the information in the public domain that is required to determine whether the ECB (through the Eurosystem) is pricing illiquid collateral appropriately. There is reason for concern that the ECB may be accepting collateral in repos and at its discount window at inflated valuations, thus joining the Fed in boosting future moral hazard through the present encouragement of adverse selection.
The Fed, unlike the ECB and the Bank of England, is also a banking sector regulator and supervisor. This gives it an informational advantage. The downside to the Fed’s position is the risk of regulatory capture. I believe that what I call ‘cognitive regulatory capture’ of the Fed by Wall Street has occurred during the past two decades. The net result is that both as regards macroeconomic stability and as regards future financial stability, the Fed has performed worse during this crisis than the ECB and the Bank of England.
Future regulation will have to be base on size and leverage of institutions. It will have to be universal (applying to all leveraged institutions above a certain size), uniform, countercyclical and global.
Financial crises will always be with us.
Para ler o artigo: here
terça-feira, 27 de maio de 2008
Resultados do setor externo
O resultado negativo da CC, provavelmente, vai roubar algumas noites de sono da turma que se passa por economistas em Barão Geraldo e Perdizes. Crise externa a vista, é uma questão de tempo, e outras tolices do gênero definem a retórica desta turma. Contudo, para a infelicidade deles, não parece que será desta vez que a crise final, o “derrumbe”, nos atingirá.
A situação do setor externo ainda não é preocupante, é preciso esperar para ver qual será o comportamento da remessa de lucros e dividendos. Se de fato é apenas uma realocação de recursos para cobrir prejuízos e, no caso do setor financeiro, se o valor atual destes prejuízos esta correto. Há também o impacto da greve dos auditores fiscais da receita. Enfim é preciso esperar.
O volume de investimento direto é um dado positivo, mas é preciso lembrar que no futuro, ele deverá gerar como contrapartida a remessa de lucros e dividendos. Digo pode, porque o resultado positivo deste investimento poderá ser reinvestido novamente no Brasil. Contudo, é razoável esperar que parte dele deverá sair sobre a forma de remessa de lucros e dividendos.
A situação do setor externo ainda não é preocupante, é preciso esperar para ver qual será o comportamento da remessa de lucros e dividendos. Se de fato é apenas uma realocação de recursos para cobrir prejuízos e, no caso do setor financeiro, se o valor atual destes prejuízos esta correto. Há também o impacto da greve dos auditores fiscais da receita. Enfim é preciso esperar.
O volume de investimento direto é um dado positivo, mas é preciso lembrar que no futuro, ele deverá gerar como contrapartida a remessa de lucros e dividendos. Digo pode, porque o resultado positivo deste investimento poderá ser reinvestido novamente no Brasil. Contudo, é razoável esperar que parte dele deverá sair sobre a forma de remessa de lucros e dividendos.
segunda-feira, 26 de maio de 2008
O relativismo bresseriano
Em interessante artigo publicado na FSP, no inicio deste mês, Bresser analisa a enorme dificuldade em governar países pobres, como é o caso de alguns países da America Latina: Venezuela, Equador e Bolívia . Ameaças de golpes e julgamento negativo dos seus governantes, definem o agir político da elites locais e constituem o pesadelo dos lideres políticos de países pobres.
O artigo, retoma temas caros ao autor, um nacionalista de esquerda da velha guarda , com uma certa dose de relativismo, como fica explicito nesta passagem do artigo : “ as elites do dois países[pobres e ricos] insistem em julgar esses líderes de acordo com critérios adequados a países desenvolvidos, em vez de compreenderem que os padrões mais baixos de desenvolvimento político exigem igualmente padrões menos rigorosos de avaliação”(FSP, 05.05.08, Pg.B2). Bresser assume uma relação de causalidade entre desenvolvimento econômico e desenvolvimento institucional, ou seja quanto mais pobre é um país “menos informada politicamente será sua população”. A tese não é nova e continua sendo controversa. Há países em que ela parece ser valida e outros que negam sua validade, o que reduz seu poder explicativo, assim como a sua utilidade.
Uma consequência obvia desta linha de argumentação é que ela serve como justificativa para praticas intervencionistas dos países ricos e, principalmente, para a tolerância com que são tratados ditadores em vários países pobres. Afinal nada se pode fazer, apenas esperar pelo desenvolvimento econômico, que resolverá os problemas institucionais destes pobres países. Ate la, melhor aceitar os Ditadores, afinal é isto que se espera dos países pobres.
O artigo, retoma temas caros ao autor, um nacionalista de esquerda da velha guarda , com uma certa dose de relativismo, como fica explicito nesta passagem do artigo : “ as elites do dois países[pobres e ricos] insistem em julgar esses líderes de acordo com critérios adequados a países desenvolvidos, em vez de compreenderem que os padrões mais baixos de desenvolvimento político exigem igualmente padrões menos rigorosos de avaliação”(FSP, 05.05.08, Pg.B2). Bresser assume uma relação de causalidade entre desenvolvimento econômico e desenvolvimento institucional, ou seja quanto mais pobre é um país “menos informada politicamente será sua população”. A tese não é nova e continua sendo controversa. Há países em que ela parece ser valida e outros que negam sua validade, o que reduz seu poder explicativo, assim como a sua utilidade.
Uma consequência obvia desta linha de argumentação é que ela serve como justificativa para praticas intervencionistas dos países ricos e, principalmente, para a tolerância com que são tratados ditadores em vários países pobres. Afinal nada se pode fazer, apenas esperar pelo desenvolvimento econômico, que resolverá os problemas institucionais destes pobres países. Ate la, melhor aceitar os Ditadores, afinal é isto que se espera dos países pobres.
domingo, 25 de maio de 2008
Um certo grilho falante
O grilho falante de um ex- Ministro da Fazenda do Governo Lula, levanta uma questão importante: o impacto negativo dos debates sobre a política econômica sobre esta mesma política econômica. Segundo ele “ na condução da política econômica, muitas vezes, silêncio e serenidade auxiliam mais do que ativismo e declarações sucessivas”( FSP, 25.05.08, pag.B5). Estaria ele defendendo o regime ditatorial? Afinal, em um regime democrático é normal a disputa, interna, sobre os rumos da política econômica. Ela esteve presente em vários governos brasileiros, como é o caso recente do Governo FHC e, em período mais distante, no segundo Governo Vargas. Política econômica, é acima de tudo Política, parece que nosso grilho falante confunde teoria econômica com política econômica. Erro fatal, ainda que recorrente, que não se esperaria de alguém de reconhecido talento e competência.
Em outra passagem ele argumenta que “ os anúncios ansiosos de que algo será feito( ainda que nada muito relevante, até agora, tenha ocorrido) aumentam a volatilidade dos preços dos ativos e reduzem a segurança para os investimentos de longo prazo”. O impacto sobre a volatibilidade é uma possibilidade real, mas é necessário compará-lo com os impactos de outras variáveis, para conhecermos sua relevância. Já a questão da segurança não parece ser muito convincente. Redução na segurança tem impacto sobre os investimentos de longo prazo, via aumento no risco de expropriação do retorno sobre este mesmo investimento. Caberia ao nosso grilho falante apresentar exemplos onde isto de fato ocorreu.
É ponto pacifico que Fagundes prestaria um grande serviço a nação com um emprego fora do Governo. Este, alias, parece ser, um dos objetivos do nosso grilho falante. Um segundo é criticar a posição, correta como já comentada em um post anterior, de um conhecido economista de esquerda com livre transito neste e em outros governos e que, aparentemente, estaria sendo ouvido pelo Presidente. Parece que nosso grilho falante não consegue ser ouvido e tem como único meio, um tanto desesperado, diga-se de passagem, a pagina de economia de um grande jornal.
Em outra passagem ele argumenta que “ os anúncios ansiosos de que algo será feito( ainda que nada muito relevante, até agora, tenha ocorrido) aumentam a volatilidade dos preços dos ativos e reduzem a segurança para os investimentos de longo prazo”. O impacto sobre a volatibilidade é uma possibilidade real, mas é necessário compará-lo com os impactos de outras variáveis, para conhecermos sua relevância. Já a questão da segurança não parece ser muito convincente. Redução na segurança tem impacto sobre os investimentos de longo prazo, via aumento no risco de expropriação do retorno sobre este mesmo investimento. Caberia ao nosso grilho falante apresentar exemplos onde isto de fato ocorreu.
É ponto pacifico que Fagundes prestaria um grande serviço a nação com um emprego fora do Governo. Este, alias, parece ser, um dos objetivos do nosso grilho falante. Um segundo é criticar a posição, correta como já comentada em um post anterior, de um conhecido economista de esquerda com livre transito neste e em outros governos e que, aparentemente, estaria sendo ouvido pelo Presidente. Parece que nosso grilho falante não consegue ser ouvido e tem como único meio, um tanto desesperado, diga-se de passagem, a pagina de economia de um grande jornal.
sábado, 24 de maio de 2008
Poder de persuasão
Interessante artigo sobre a participação da Igreja em debates na esfera política. A reflexão é feita a partir da experiência britanica, mas é útil, também, para o Brasil.
Does the Church have the right to try to influence political processes, such as the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill? And if so, how? A new report from a Christian think tank sets out how the Church should engage in modern politics
What is the easiest way to win an argument? You might choose to undermine your opponent's logic, discredit their facts or show how ghastly things would be if they had their way. But surely the easiest way is simply to deny them a voice in the first place.
It has been interesting to see how this tactic has been deployed in debates over the recent Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill. Few use it quite that blatantly, of course, but if your opponents are religious, it is so much easier to deploy the "religion is private" card than actually to engage with their arguments.
Para ler o artigo completo:Powers of persuasion
Does the Church have the right to try to influence political processes, such as the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill? And if so, how? A new report from a Christian think tank sets out how the Church should engage in modern politics
What is the easiest way to win an argument? You might choose to undermine your opponent's logic, discredit their facts or show how ghastly things would be if they had their way. But surely the easiest way is simply to deny them a voice in the first place.
It has been interesting to see how this tactic has been deployed in debates over the recent Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill. Few use it quite that blatantly, of course, but if your opponents are religious, it is so much easier to deploy the "religion is private" card than actually to engage with their arguments.
Para ler o artigo completo:Powers of persuasion
sexta-feira, 23 de maio de 2008
Boas notícias
O lançamento da revista “ Interesse Nacional” é um bom sinal. Ainda não tive a oportunidade de ler a revista, mas a lista de contribuidores para o número de lançamento é auspiciosa: diversidade de linhas e de filiação partidária é o que se espera de uma revista dedicada a este tema e é isto, justamente, o que encontramos no primeiro número. É esperar para ver ... e torcer para que ela possa romper a barreira que o tema ainda encontra nas Universidades de elite.
Uma segunda boa noticia é a suspensão do lançamento do Fundo Soberano. Segundo a Folha o Presidente ainda tem dúvidas “sobre o uso de recursos do superávit primário para formar seu caixa”. É mais uma decisão correta do Presidente, que poderia aproveitar a oportunidade e encontrar um outro emprego para Fagundes, o formulador de idéias exóticas. É sempre possível encontrar um emprego bem remunerado em algum canto do globo, principalmente na capital do Império. Por falar nisto, Walter Ego, continua implicando com o famoso Napoleão de Hospício, que justiça seja feita é um ótimo economista, enquanto o primeiro é um esforçado contador de histórias.
Uma segunda boa noticia é a suspensão do lançamento do Fundo Soberano. Segundo a Folha o Presidente ainda tem dúvidas “sobre o uso de recursos do superávit primário para formar seu caixa”. É mais uma decisão correta do Presidente, que poderia aproveitar a oportunidade e encontrar um outro emprego para Fagundes, o formulador de idéias exóticas. É sempre possível encontrar um emprego bem remunerado em algum canto do globo, principalmente na capital do Império. Por falar nisto, Walter Ego, continua implicando com o famoso Napoleão de Hospício, que justiça seja feita é um ótimo economista, enquanto o primeiro é um esforçado contador de histórias.
quinta-feira, 22 de maio de 2008
Dois poemas de Langston Hughes
I, Too
I, too, sing America.
I am the darker brother.
They send me to eat in the kitchen
When company comes,
But I laugh,
And eat well,
And grow strong.
Tomorrow,
I'll be at rable
When company comes
Nobody'll dare
Say to me,
"Eat in the kitchen,"
Then.
Besides,
They'll see how beatiful I am
And be ashamed -
I, too, am America
*
Island
Between two rivers,
North of the park,
Life darker rivers
The streets are dark.
Black and white,
Gold and brown -
Chocolate-custard
Pie of a town.
Dream withim a dream,
Our dream deferred.
Good morning, daddy!
Ain't you heard?
I, too, sing America.
I am the darker brother.
They send me to eat in the kitchen
When company comes,
But I laugh,
And eat well,
And grow strong.
Tomorrow,
I'll be at rable
When company comes
Nobody'll dare
Say to me,
"Eat in the kitchen,"
Then.
Besides,
They'll see how beatiful I am
And be ashamed -
I, too, am America
*
Island
Between two rivers,
North of the park,
Life darker rivers
The streets are dark.
Black and white,
Gold and brown -
Chocolate-custard
Pie of a town.
Dream withim a dream,
Our dream deferred.
Good morning, daddy!
Ain't you heard?
quarta-feira, 21 de maio de 2008
Mendonça de Barros e a política industrial
L.C.Mendonça de Barros, um dos melhores analistas da economia brasileira, apresentou, recentemente na Folha novos ( ou velhos?) argumentos em defesa da política industrial, no formato de três lições.
Ele inicia o artigo afirmando que “em primeiro lugar, quero dizer que acredito na necessidade de um país como o Brasil ter uma política industrial. Não concordo com os que negam que a articulação entre o setor privado e o governo seja um caminho eficiente para desenvolver o tecido industrial de um país em desenvolvimento.”
A história econômica brasileira e de outros países esta longe de comprovar a tese da eficiência. Mendonça de Barros menciona apenas um exemplo de fracasso, o da Cobra, e elogia, como era de se esperar, o sucesso da Embraer. Contudo, se levarmos em consideração o montante de recursos públicos investidos nesta empresa, a avaliação não será tão rósea quanto a do Mendonça. Ele esquece, também, de mencionar a Engesa e outros exemplos de eficiência da política industrial. Mesmo aceitando a tese dele, ela não se aplicaria ao Brasil, que esta longe de ser um país em desenvolvimento. Neste quesito, a avaliação do FHC ne parece correta.
“A primeira, e talvez a mais importante, é a de que nenhuma política industrial tem viabilidade se não respeitar o mercado. Em outras palavras, ela precisa ter as forças de mercado a seu favor e nunca andar na mão oposta”. É no mínimo curiosa. Qual seria, então sua razão de ser? Ela somente poderá respeitar o mercado e contar com o favor do mercado, se não assumirmos assimetria de informações. Sabemos que as informações do gestor e do mercado são diferentes e o que o grande erro da política industrial é achar que ela pode antecipar-se ao mercado.
“A segunda lição que a história nos ensina é que a política industrial deve acompanhar a evolução do capitalismo brasileiro.” O contrário é que não poderia ser. Mas, ele tem razão, no Brasil algumas obviedades, ainda são novidades.
“A terceira lição nos ensina que a política industrial deve responder às necessidades do setor privado, eliminando ou reduzindo os principais obstáculos estruturais ao seu desenvolvimento.” É correto, somente se aceitarmos que as necessidade deste setor, são as mesmas da sociedade como um todo. Convenhamos que é uma tese no mínimo heróica e, não raro, justificativa para a defesa de interesses de classe em nome do interesse nacional. Não estou negando a existência do interesse nacional, muito pelo contrário: ele existe e é importante, mas não pode ser confundido com o interesse de classe. Uma indicação da miséria intelectual brasileira é ausência de debates sobre o interesse nacional: presente em Universidades de elite mundo afora, por aqui ainda engatinha.
Ele inicia o artigo afirmando que “em primeiro lugar, quero dizer que acredito na necessidade de um país como o Brasil ter uma política industrial. Não concordo com os que negam que a articulação entre o setor privado e o governo seja um caminho eficiente para desenvolver o tecido industrial de um país em desenvolvimento.”
A história econômica brasileira e de outros países esta longe de comprovar a tese da eficiência. Mendonça de Barros menciona apenas um exemplo de fracasso, o da Cobra, e elogia, como era de se esperar, o sucesso da Embraer. Contudo, se levarmos em consideração o montante de recursos públicos investidos nesta empresa, a avaliação não será tão rósea quanto a do Mendonça. Ele esquece, também, de mencionar a Engesa e outros exemplos de eficiência da política industrial. Mesmo aceitando a tese dele, ela não se aplicaria ao Brasil, que esta longe de ser um país em desenvolvimento. Neste quesito, a avaliação do FHC ne parece correta.
“A primeira, e talvez a mais importante, é a de que nenhuma política industrial tem viabilidade se não respeitar o mercado. Em outras palavras, ela precisa ter as forças de mercado a seu favor e nunca andar na mão oposta”. É no mínimo curiosa. Qual seria, então sua razão de ser? Ela somente poderá respeitar o mercado e contar com o favor do mercado, se não assumirmos assimetria de informações. Sabemos que as informações do gestor e do mercado são diferentes e o que o grande erro da política industrial é achar que ela pode antecipar-se ao mercado.
“A segunda lição que a história nos ensina é que a política industrial deve acompanhar a evolução do capitalismo brasileiro.” O contrário é que não poderia ser. Mas, ele tem razão, no Brasil algumas obviedades, ainda são novidades.
“A terceira lição nos ensina que a política industrial deve responder às necessidades do setor privado, eliminando ou reduzindo os principais obstáculos estruturais ao seu desenvolvimento.” É correto, somente se aceitarmos que as necessidade deste setor, são as mesmas da sociedade como um todo. Convenhamos que é uma tese no mínimo heróica e, não raro, justificativa para a defesa de interesses de classe em nome do interesse nacional. Não estou negando a existência do interesse nacional, muito pelo contrário: ele existe e é importante, mas não pode ser confundido com o interesse de classe. Uma indicação da miséria intelectual brasileira é ausência de debates sobre o interesse nacional: presente em Universidades de elite mundo afora, por aqui ainda engatinha.
terça-feira, 20 de maio de 2008
O eterno retorno
“ A desvalorização cambial implica redução temporária de salários reais e um aumento tambem temporário da inflação”(FSP.19.05.08). Finalmente alguem reconhece os impactos negativos de uma alteração na taxa de cãmbio. Mais uma demonstração de coragem do Sr. Bresser Pereira. Resta, contudo, a questão: seria temporária? Na historia econômica brasileira encontramos varios exemplos de políticas que deveriam ter um impacto negativo, apenas, temporário sobre os salários reais e a inflação e que terminaram tendo um impacto permanente. Não é facil aceitar que desta vez seria diferente.
Uma outra questão deve ser lembrada: trata-se, também, da transferência de renda entre setores da economia brasileira. O setor vencedor, neste caso, seria, naturalmente o exportador. É o eterno retorno da velha pratica mercantilista com uma roupagem, aparentemente, moderna, mas , na verdade roto.
Uma outra questão deve ser lembrada: trata-se, também, da transferência de renda entre setores da economia brasileira. O setor vencedor, neste caso, seria, naturalmente o exportador. É o eterno retorno da velha pratica mercantilista com uma roupagem, aparentemente, moderna, mas , na verdade roto.
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