The Italian political scene keeps changing, yet all could stay the same. It is an old story. The biggest centre-right party – Silvio Berlusconi’s People of Freedom (PDL) – has disappeared. In its place, Angelino Alfano, deputy prime minister and once Mr Berlusconi’s protégé, has formed the New Centre Right. Meanwhile, Mr Berlusconi has split off to resurrect Forza Italia, the party he formed in 1994 as his vehicle for entering politics.
Last week, after being expelled from the Senate, Mr Berlusconi withdrew the support of his MPs from the grand coalition government, led by Enrico Letta of the Democratic party (PD). Even so, the conventional wisdom today is that the Letta government will survive until 2015. It has the support of Mr Alfano’s party, as well as the president, the majority of the PD, the EU institutions, the foreign press and other EU governments. In fact, Mr Letta and others see Mr Berlusconi’s exit as strengthening their position. But they are not out of the woods yet. The record of the grand coalition between the socialist PD and the PDL is poor.
The rationale behind the coalition arrangement was that, governing together, the two parties would be able to take joint responsibility for unpopular economic and constitutional reforms. But nothing has happened. So far the Letta cabinet has been muddling through, hampered by all sorts of vetoes. Will it act more decisively now that Mr Berlusconi is out? It should.
After all, Mr Alfano claims to be a moderate and a reformer. If so, in the next few weeks we should see concrete progress on at least two big points: fiscal policy and the faulty electoral system. If this happens, it will be a clear signal of change. But if it does not, can Italy afford to wait more than a year for elections? Why not try again with a vote in April?
This view may soon have a new champion. On December 8 Matteo Renzi, the charismatic 38-year-old mayor of Florence, is expected to win the open primaries to become secretary of the PD – and therefore its candidate for prime minister. Mr Renzi’s position is that the grand coalition has not worked. Unless the Letta-Alfano cabinet makes progress, it would be better to vote in 2014.
Mr Renzi has not been so explicit. The idea is not popular. But there is little doubt this is what he thinks. This could put him and Mr Letta on a collision course. Their rivalry could destroy them and the PD.
The only beneficiary would be the centre-right. Chaos on the left would help them – and the Alfano-Berlusconi split into two parties might help them build support, too. At the last elections, Mr Berlusconi lost 6.5m votes. These are supporters that he cannot win back. Yet an independent Mr Alfano, with his more moderate appeal party, might. Meanwhile, Mr Berlusconi’s Forza Italia will be able to hang on to his hardcore constituency of radical conservative voters.
It is such a good plan that one has to wonder whether it was agreed by the two centre-right leaders. The words used at their divorce lend credibility to the plot. Both leaders talked about the need not to create an unbridgeable schism; the electoral system will force them to run under the same umbrella. And if things go right for them, they might even win or cause another stalemate in 2015. All they need is to see Mr Renzi and Mr Letta start fighting. A year is a long time to manage a rivalry. If it is not done well, the centre-left will have wasted a good chance to score a decisive victory, even with the present faulty electoral system.
So it is up to Mr Letta to prevent this scenario from playing out. He has to work out a new deal with Mr Alfano and press for change. Real change, not cosmetic. He has leverage now; he should use it. Europe should pay critical attention. Muddling through is not what Italy and the EU need. If the Letta-Alfano cabinet will not step up, Mr Letta and Mr Renzi should agree a plan – including early elections – to break the deadlock.
The window to call a vote early in 2014 will close in February. After that, with European elections and the Italian presidency of the EU to come, Italy will have to wait until 2015. Anything could happen by then. Even a Forza Italia resurrection.
Roberto D’Alimonte is a professor of politics at LUISS Guido Carli, Rome
Fonte: FT
