Edward Luce: The Republican lost cause – bringing Barack Obama down

There is no need to watch Gone with the Wind to grasp the American south’s taste for lost causes. Just watch Congress.
Some time before Tuesday morning we will discover whether the south-dominated Republican party is prepared to shutter the US government in a bid to defund “Obamacare”. Two weeks or so later, we will find out if hatred of Barack Obama’s signature achievement outweighs belief in the full faith and credit of the US.
In neither case will the party come close to overturning the law. But as Obamacare’s socialist, secular machine gradually mows down what remains of civil society, diehards can comfort themselves they were brave enough to lie in its path. It will be a glorious defeat.
So, at least, runs the reel in Ted Cruz’s head. But there are big problems with the script.
First, the Affordable Care Act, as Obamacare is still occasionally called, is nothing like as its opponents describe it. In reality it is a relatively moderate reform to the market-based US health insurance system. As Republican lawmakers know, the bill’s mechanism was taken directly from a 1993 paper by The Heritage Foundation – the best-funded conservative advocacy group in Washington. Today Heritage is spearheading opposition to the ACA. As they also know, the ACA is in crucial respects to the right of the health reform passed by Mitt Romney, their 2012 presidential nominee, when he was governor of Massachusetts. All of Obamacare’s insurance plans – whether subsidised or not – are offered by the private sector. There is no public option. On substance, the law is a victory for conservative reform.
Nor, as it is often assumed, can Republican fury be about the size of the US government. More than half of American healthcare is already provided directly by the federal government – Medicare for retirees, Medicaid for the poorest, and the Veterans Administration for anyone who has served in the armed forces.
In key respects, therefore, half of US healthcare looks like Canada or Britain’s National Health Service. Republicans have no plans to repeal these programmes. When the ACA passed in 2010, many of Mr Obama’s supporters were disappointed he did not simply extend Medicare to cover everyone under 65. Instead, Obamacare will subsidise broader participation in the existing private system. Hopefully a large chunk of America’s 48m uninsured will now get coverage. But if Republicans are worried about big government, they are looking in the wrong place.
Finally, the Republican bid to stop Obamacare will not gain the party any political advantage – at least not by the usual yardstick of becoming more popular. The ACA remains relatively disliked. A plurality of Americans say so. But by large majorities they disapprove of Republican attempts to link Obamacare’s defunding to renewal of the US debt ceiling. Newt Gingrich’s decision to shut down government in late 1995 and early 1996 contributed to his party’s defeat to Bill Clinton at the presidential election later that year. If Republican numbers get much worse, it could jeopardise the party’s hefty House of Representatives majority in next year’s midterm elections. A US sovereign default would pretty much guarantee it. There is no ambiguity in the polls about which party would take the blame.
What, then, is driving the Republican obsession with Obamacare? The answer has been in plain view for years. It boils down to the Tea Party’s hatred of Mr Obama.
After the stormy town hall protests of August 2009, Jim DeMint, a senator from South Carolina, vowed to turn healthcare reform into “Obama’s Waterloo”. He came close to succeeding. The bill passed only by a whisker. Mr DeMint now heads The Heritage Foundation. In pulling off that first noble defeat, Tea Party Republicans rallied a heavily white and elderly backlash against the bill, claiming it would result in “death panels” for the old and a health system run by bureaucrats. The policy arguments for and against Obamacare had little to do with it. Republicans claimed Mr Obama was robbing Medicare to fund Obamacare. “Hands off my Medicare” was a common sign among the protesters.
Today’s drive is no more fact-based than the last. The banal truth about the ACA is that it will take years to bring about modest improvements to America’s expensive and complex system of healthcare delivery. To be sure, the ACA will make life more humane for millions of Americans. It may even reduce the US fiscal deficit modestly (by $108bn over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office). But it will leave the essential features in place.
On substantive grounds, Tea Party Republicans have chosen a highly idiosyncratic piece of turf to re-enact Custer’s last stand. Only on psychological grounds can their recklessness be fully understood.
Mr Obama has repeatedly said that he will not bargain with the Republicans over raising the US debt ceiling. This is the only responsible position a US president can take. When faced with an all-or-nothing demand, there is no room for negotiation.
And so we have arrived at the bizarre juncture where it makes more sense for Mr Obama to talk to the leader of Iran than to talk to Congress. Republicans will soon face the choice of climbing down from their demands or pressing the fiscal equivalent of the nuclear button. Either route will bring them defeat. Everyone must hope that they opt for the less glorious version this time.

Edward Luce

Fonte: FT