Chris Hanretty: Letta has survived, but now must start to govern

Bom artigo sobre o governo italiano. Vale a leitura


This week, to mark 100 days in office, Enrico Letta’s Italian government released an electronic booklet and companion website detailing the administration’s achievements. Alas, for some readers, it showed up as white text on a white background. As heavy-handed political metaphors go, it was hard to beat. A polling company, SWG, recently asked Italians what they remembered most about the Letta government. Almost two-fifths could recall nothing at all.
In truth, the government’s main achievement has been survival. It is unfortunate that this achievement is worth mentioning. The February election was one of the most volatile in west European electoral history, and led many commentators to predict fresh elections either before or shortly after the summer break.
Notwithstanding Silvio Berlusconi’s recent conviction for tax fraud, and a temptation on both sides of the political spectrum to call fresh elections, it now seems more likely that the government will last at least until European elections next year. Mr Letta benefits from the electoral system, which requires a coalition to sweep the board in a series of regional contests to win majorities in both chambers. Neither left nor right is polling well enough to do so.
A secondary achievement has been reassuring the EU. Shortly after the government’s formation, Italy left the European naughty step: the club of member states placed under the commission’s excessive deficit procedure. Though this boon was only secured thanks to decisions taken by his predecessor, Mario Monti, Mr Letta has, whether through charm or ubiquity (the white-on-white booklet mentions his extensive travels), achieved for Italy a degree of consideration that a François Hollande or a Mariano Rajoy might envy.
Nevertheless, many Italian governments have survived without governing. Over the next 100 days the government faces three particular challenges. First, it must deal with the fallout from Berlusconi’s conviction and his likely expulsion from parliament. That will not mean that Berlusconi will be powerless. He has only been convicted, not disgraced. Members of his party will continue to further what they perceive as his interests. Even when in power, Berlusconi always preferred to conduct business from his private residences in Rome and Milan. The flow of self-interested courtiers to Palazzo Grazioli and Arcore respectively will not dry up, and demands made by Berlusconi will be pursued by his ministers.
Second, the government should deal with electoral reform before the constitutional court is called upon to act. Three parties dominate the Italian political scene: the centre-left Democratic party, of which Mr Letta is a member; Berlusconi’s People of Freedom; and the anti-system Five Star Movement. These mutually antagonistic parties together command about three-quarters of the votes. No electoral system can guarantee a coherent majority given this distribution of support. But a proportional system with a high minimum representation threshold of 5 per cent would simplify post-electoral coalition formation.
Reform may be easier now that it is clear Berlusconi will not take top place on any electoral list (a law passed under the Monti government means Berlusconi is already barred from standing for office in any fresh elections). But, sadly, the reform that stands the greatest chance of permitting a coherent majority – the abolition or reform of the Senate, which currently duplicates the powers of the lower chamber, meaning that the government must have a majority in both chambers – would require constitutional amendments that could not realistically be passed within the 18-month timeframe Mr Letta set out in his inaugural speech.
Finally, the government must, by the end of the month, deal with taxation. Berlusconi’s party has demanded the abolition of a particularly disliked local property tax. Though unpopular, it is the right tax for Italy: it is not easily evaded; it does not distort labour markets; and it falls on the established rather than the young un- or underemployed. Italy already takes less tax from property than the developed-world average. Mr Letta should attempt to preserve it.
If the government survives the next 100 days, it will have to tackle the factors behind Italy’s dismal growth record. At some point, it will be told to reform the labour market – the third rail of Italian politics. Blaming the labour market is too easy. Self-serving regulation in product and service markets is far more important. The Monti government had to battle against notaries, pharmacists, taxi drivers and petrol station owners in its drive to make entry into those markets easier. It was only partly successful. The Letta government can do more. This will be difficult, and is the work of more than one hundred days. Italians should hope it is not the work of a thousand.

Chris Hanretty teaches politics at the University of East Anglia