Eleições na Alemanha...

Interessante analise das eleições na Alemanha no segundo semestre do corrente ano. É,como mencionamos em vários posts, fundamental para sabermos como serão encaminhados temas espinhosos na zona do euro, entre os quais a política de austeridade que tanto sofrimento tem causado a sua população.Por enquanto Merkel é a favorita, mas como argumenta Peel, esta longe de ser um jogo jogado.


It is still early days in the German election campaign, but the political temperature is rising four months before polling day.
The gap between Angela Merkel’s centre-right Christian Democratic Union and the centre-left Social Democratic party has started to shrink for the first time in months.
A scandal over tax evasion involving Uli Hoeness, president of Bayern Munich football club and close to the ruling CDU and its Bavarian sister-party, the Christian Social Union, is one factor. The rise of a new eurosceptic party seeking to woo dissident conservatives is another. The CDU/CSU bloc has seen its support slip to 37 per cent in one recent poll and the SPD has picked up to 27 per cent.
In spite of her personal popularity, the chance of a shock defeat for Germany’s chancellor has unsettled the mood among her supporters and revived the hopes of an opposition that has been trailing in the polls.
So what would it take to unseat Ms Merkel, the most powerful politician in Europe?
For a start, it may not depend on the big issues – managing the eurozone financial crisis or tackling social injustice – debated by the big parties. It may be decided by the marginal mathematics of the smallest parties, including the unpredictable intervention of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a eurosceptic alliance led by an economics professor.
Even if they do not win any seats in the parliament, they could affect the distribution of votes and the precise numbers needed to win a majority.
Much depends on whether Ms Merkel’s partner in power, the liberal Free Democratic party, can win the 5 per cent needed to get into the Bundestag. A vociferous minority in the FDP is unhappy with Ms Merkel’s eurozone crisis management. Some could switch to the AfD. The same goes for CDU dissidents.
Three local state leaders of the CDU – from Hesse, a traditional conservative heartland, as well as Saxony and Thuringia in the east – have drafted a paper calling on Ms Merkel to attack the AfD more openly. But she thinks that would simply encourage them. She is inclined to ignore the challenge.
The chancellor’s own popularity is much higher than that of her government. Her rating is more than 60 per cent, but only 25 per cent say they want to see her conservative-liberal coalition back in office. What voters want most is a “grand coalition” of CDU and SPD, headed by Ms Merkel.
On the other hand, Peer Steinbrück, the SPD challenger, has had a rotten start to his campaign and his rating is barely 30 per cent.
Ms Merkel’s pragmatic conservatism and aversion to risk-taking seem to suit the electorate. She combines a firmly pro-European attitude with a stubborn determination to defend Germany’s interests in the eurozone financial crisis: that is what the voters want. Mr Steinbrück, who is campaigning for a coalition with the Greens, comes across as equally intelligent, but more abrasive.
But German elections are not traditionally presidential. “In the end it is not the reputation of the chancellor that will be decisive because in Germany it is always parties that are elected,” says Thomas Oppermann, the SPD chief whip just appointed to the Steinbrück election team.
The CDU has lost all the most recent state elections, as well as a string of mayoral elections in Germany’s big cities, in spite of the chancellor’s high standing.
The SPD calculation is that the threshold for a majority with the Greens – polling at about 15 per cent – would be in reach if several small parties fail to reach 5 per cent. It would require the FDP and AfD each to win about 4.5 per cent, the internet libertarian Pirate party to get 3 per cent, and others (such as the neo-Nazi NPD) to get an odd percentage point. That would see the Bundestag elected by about 86 per cent of voters and a majority possible with just 43 per cent support.
Ms Merkel’s best allies, on the other hand, are the far-left Linke party, including former East German communists. Every vote for the Linke is a lost vote for the SPD. And the Social Democrats are adamant they will not co-operate with them in any coalition because they are anti-European and anti-Nato.
“It means the election is wide open,” says Mr Oppermann. “At this point in 2009, Angela Merkel had 40 per cent. She ended up with 33.8 per cent. Things will only come to a head in late August or early September, so everything is still to play for.”

Quentin Peel

Fonte: FT