Kalypso Nicolaidis: Merkel and Renzi are the partners who can reshape Europe

F ew European leaders relish the memory of British isolationism. That might once again seem to be in prospect, after the sorry sight of David Cameron’s crushing defeat that culminated last week in the coronation of Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European Commission. But many of the British prime minister’s European peers think he hardened his line now to soften his electorate later – and that next time he will do more to help others help him. Many share his goal: a British yes to a reformed EU.

One reason for cautious optimism is Europe’s leaders. Who can doubt that Matteo Renzi, Italy’s prime minister, is man of the hour? His Democratic party has performed better than any in Italy since 1958 – and better than the 186 parties that gathered this week at the opening of the European Parliament. No other leader comes close to his mandate for change. As Italy takes over the EU’s six-month rotating presidency this week, and with the next commission not in place until October, he is well placed to define the agenda for the next five years.


In many ways – ideology, geography, policy – Mr Renzi is the perfect counterbalance to the soft hegemony of Angela Merkel. As they are both likely to stay in power for the foreseeable future, it is the entente between him and the German chancellor that is most likely to shape the new Europe.

This “Merkenzi” alliance could be good news for both the EU and the UK. The EU needs pragmatic leaders who agree that there are no absolute answers to the question of whether it should do more or less. Mr Renzi has spoken of the need for collective action on energy, infrastructure, climate and immigration. But he has also said that he is fed up with the EU acting like an “old boring aunt”. Italian, Spanish and Greek citizens do not need Brussels to tell them that they should not tolerate corruption and nepotism.

The next step will be for member states to recognise that repatriation of powers, such as more leeway in deciding which benefits migrants receive from their welfare states, is not a sovereigntist retreat but an essential part of federalism.

Mr Renzi will also seek a deal with Berlin on a gentler interpretation of the EU budget constraints. But he will do so cunningly while praising the German model, for instance, on labour laws. Wanting stronger growth in her own country, Ms Merkel might come to see the virtue of “using the rules to their maximum”, as an Italian official quipped, to allow countries implementing reforms extra time to meet debt targets by excluding some investment and educational costs from public deficit calculations.



Ironically, the success of the European parliamentarians in imposing their candidate to head the commission could turn out to be a Pyrrhic victory. Now that Mr Juncker has a whip, he may no longer be their creature; indeed, he could become their master.

Heads of states will also be able to reassert their authority more creatively as they learn to take accountability seriously. This could include making their selection of candidates to the commission more transparent.

There is also little doubt that national parliaments will become more involved, from better monitoring of the European Council to greater involvement in the reform proposals over domestic fiscal issues emanating from the commission.

Politicians on both sides of the channel must remember that according to the EU’s founding treaties, the “ever closer union” is “of the peoples” of the continent. European politicians must respect this plurality. In this spirit, political arithmetic may encourage moves from containment to engagement with eurosceptic voters who may be against EU policies but often not against the EU itself. Engaging eurocriticism while isolating the extremists on the right and left will require addressing the roots of populist movements fed on widespread inequalities.

If the EU starts moving in the right direction, the British public could warm to the idea that changing Europe from within, not quitting it, is the bigger prize. Mr Renzi dreams of a Europe not only about rules but with a soul, while Ms Merkel prefers a Brussels with teeth. It will be left to others, including Mr Cameron, to fill in the wrinkles of our old nagging auntie.



Kalypso Nicolaidis is a professor of international relations at the University of Oxford