Convidado da seção "ask the expert" do FT, Nouriel Roubini, responde questões do internauta sobre a crise econômica. Como sempre, em se tratanto dele é leitura obrigatória...
It is pretty much consensus now that 2009 will be a zero growth year for the world economy (something that you forecast well in advance). It seems that the major risk for the following years is having a lost decade of Japanese-style stagnation but on a worldwide basis. How are the governments in US and Europe faring so far in their effort to avoid that?
Marco, Sao Paulo
Nouriel Roubini: To avoid a Japanese style multi-year L-shaped near-depression or stag-deflation (a deadly combination of stagnation, recession and deflation) the appropriate, coherent and credible combination of monetary easing (traditional and unorthodox), fiscal stimulus, proper clean-up of the financial system and reduction of the debt burden of insolvent private agents (households and non-financial companies) is necessary.
The eurozone is well behind the US in its efforts as: a) the ECB is behind the curve in cutting policy rates and creating non-traditional facilities to deal with the liquidity and credit crunch; b) the fiscal stimulus is too modest as those who can afford it (Germany) are lukewarm about it and those who need it the most (Spain, Portugal, Greece, Italy) can least afford it as they already have large budget deficits; c) there is lack of cross-border burden sharing of the fiscal costs of bailing out financial institutions.
The U.S. has done more (with its aggressive monetary easing and large fiscal stimulus putting it ahead) but two key elements are key to avoid a near-depression and still missing: a proper clean-up of the banking system that may require a proper triage between solvent and insolvent banks and the nationalization of many banks; and a more aggressive and across-the-board solution to the unsustainable debt burden of millions of insolvent households.
Thus, I would say the L-shaped near-depression scenario is possible.
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How can Davos, a gathering of the greediest, most avaricious and incompetent people of the planet, ever fix any of the problems they have created in the first place, and hugely benefited from?. Do you agree that when the boom was at its height, you were mistreated there when you tried to draw attention on the looming crisis? Are you now afraid of being now co-opted by the system and losing your independence?
Marcel Knecht, Villa Santiago, Mexico
NR: It is important to keep one’s intellectual rigor and honesty free from any financial conflict of interest (I never trade in markets and so I am never “talk my book” when I present my views).
I have kept my balanced and analytically rigorous but bearish view over time and adjusted my outlook only at the margin in light of the evolving circumstances.
But the basic thrust of my analysis and views about the severity of this financial and economic crisis – the worst since the Great Depression - has not changed.
I don’t think anyone could suggest that I have been co-opted by the system and lost my independence. If anything my concerns that a severe U-shaped global recession may turn into a worse, L-shaped near-depression have somewhat increased over time.
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